Coronavirus: The Sick Elephant In The Room
- Thread starter Rider
- Start date
Fed up with all the media, same statistics, yet different interpretations and so forth..
Yes, we know COVID can be deadly, make you really sick etc etc etc
In the past ..xx.. number of years what about the flu.. have people gotten sick, yes, passed, yes....
Trying to maintain similar lifestyle prior to March...
Restrictions and Hypocrisy prevent
Just imho
Yes, we know COVID can be deadly, make you really sick etc etc etc
In the past ..xx.. number of years what about the flu.. have people gotten sick, yes, passed, yes....
Trying to maintain similar lifestyle prior to March...
Restrictions and Hypocrisy prevent
Just imho
This is not true. Health care workers wear more protective masks because of the amount of time and contact they spend with patients in a medical environment. A "regular" mask prevents the spread of droplets from spreading from the wearer to the people around them. It is not 100 percent effective but it greatly reduces the spread of this virus.
I think that since the availability (to some anyway) is imminent some sort of poll is appropriate:
As soon as I am able to get a shot, I'm in.
I'm going to wait an see what the side effects are
I'm not going to get the vaccine
I've had covid but am getting the vaccine anyway
I've had covid so I assume I don't need the vaccine
MOD: I don't know how to set up a poll. If you can set it up or tell me how I will do it. Maybe a poll can be setup in a new thread.
Maybe: My thoughts on the vaccine.
As soon as I am able to get a shot, I'm in.
I'm going to wait an see what the side effects are
I'm not going to get the vaccine
I've had covid but am getting the vaccine anyway
I've had covid so I assume I don't need the vaccine
MOD: I don't know how to set up a poll. If you can set it up or tell me how I will do it. Maybe a poll can be setup in a new thread.
Maybe: My thoughts on the vaccine.
If it wasn't for the fact that people in the test groups have a 50% chance of getting a saline placebo, I would have volunteered to be on it. I simply do not have the balls for that and I take my hat off to all those that do.
The second I am able to get the vaccine I will get it.
IMHO, all the candidate vaccines will be the most carefully manufactured, controlled and monitored in history.
The second I am able to get the vaccine I will get it.
IMHO, all the candidate vaccines will be the most carefully manufactured, controlled and monitored in history.
Those of you of a certain age, like me, may still have the tiny smallpox scar from the vaccine that eliminated one of the greatest scourge of mankind. I actually have two of them as I got a 2nd one in boot camp.
Some of the older baby boomers may still have their "Polio Pioneer card and accompanying button" given to those, like me, in the polio vaccine trials of 1954, eliminating another scourge of mankind.
Some of the older baby boomers may still have their "Polio Pioneer card and accompanying button" given to those, like me, in the polio vaccine trials of 1954, eliminating another scourge of mankind.
Here are some back of the envelope math calculations:
if the infection rate is 3% a person will have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 23 people.
if the infection rate is 4% a person have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 17 people.
if the infection rate is 5% a person have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 14 people.
If the person you are in close contact with (say a provider) has seen those number of people — those are the odds that that person has contacted an infected person.
Doesn't mean the provider will be infected — just a simplistic calculation of the odds of being in contact with an infected person.
Now just think about a fast house with 4 girls working. The girls will be in contact with each other during the day — say when they are sitting on the couch waiting for another customer or during a lunch break and the girls take breaks together.
Since I am an older guy, I have (I've taken the liberty to paraphrase your words a bit) given pause with this hobby since the beginning of April and will continue to pause until after I get vaccinated.
if the infection rate is 3% a person will have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 23 people.
if the infection rate is 4% a person have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 17 people.
if the infection rate is 5% a person have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 14 people.
If the person you are in close contact with (say a provider) has seen those number of people — those are the odds that that person has contacted an infected person.
Doesn't mean the provider will be infected — just a simplistic calculation of the odds of being in contact with an infected person.
Now just think about a fast house with 4 girls working. The girls will be in contact with each other during the day — say when they are sitting on the couch waiting for another customer or during a lunch break and the girls take breaks together.
Since I am an older guy, I have (I've taken the liberty to paraphrase your words a bit) given pause with this hobby since the beginning of April and will continue to pause until after I get vaccinated.
Infection rate reported in today's ND for LI is 5.38% for those tested.
Assuming that those tested are representative for the general population AND mongers are representative of the general population (these are big assumptions — but it is all I have to go on for the calculation).
back-of-the-envelope calculation:
if the infection rate is 5.38% a person will have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 12.6 people.
if the infection rate is 5.38% a person will have a 90% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 42 people.
If the person you are in contact with (say a provider) has seen those number of people — those are the odds that that person has contacted an infected person.
Doesn't mean the provider will be infected, especially if masks are used — just a simplistic calculation of the odds of being in contact with an infected person.
Now just think about a fast house or an AMP with 3 girls working and either a mamasan or other person (say the person collecting money) . In addition to the obvious contact with customers, they will be in contact with each other during the day — say when they are sitting on the couch waiting for another customer or during a lunch break and the girls take breaks together.
FWIW, I know personally (in my social sphere) of 8 people who had covid with symptoms (I don't know how many others who had it but were asymptomatic and I don't know of any who tested positive and were asymptomatic). I was not in contact with any of them (those who were symptomatic) in prior 2 weeks before they got infected. All cases were late spring 2020 except male 28 who lived with GF— he was infected 2 months ago.
1 - age 80, female, healthy, died
1 - age 62, female, obese and diabetes, died
1- age 55, male, overweight, diabetes, died
3 - age 28 male, fit and healthy, sick in bed 1 week. his 2 young kids sick with mild symptoms, wife, either asymptomatic or not infected.
1 - age 27 female, very fit (5K and 10K athlete) and healthy, only symptoms were covid toes (toes of both feet swollen and painful with purple lesions from clots caused by the virus). Could barely walk for a week, walked with pain for several weeks after, toes are still painful but getting slowly less so for past 4 months.
1- age 28, male, sick in bed for a week,, his GF he lived with either asymptomatic or didn't get infected
Assuming that those tested are representative for the general population AND mongers are representative of the general population (these are big assumptions — but it is all I have to go on for the calculation).
back-of-the-envelope calculation:
if the infection rate is 5.38% a person will have a 50% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 12.6 people.
if the infection rate is 5.38% a person will have a 90% chance of coming in contact with an infected person if they contact 42 people.
If the person you are in contact with (say a provider) has seen those number of people — those are the odds that that person has contacted an infected person.
Doesn't mean the provider will be infected, especially if masks are used — just a simplistic calculation of the odds of being in contact with an infected person.
Now just think about a fast house or an AMP with 3 girls working and either a mamasan or other person (say the person collecting money) . In addition to the obvious contact with customers, they will be in contact with each other during the day — say when they are sitting on the couch waiting for another customer or during a lunch break and the girls take breaks together.
FWIW, I know personally (in my social sphere) of 8 people who had covid with symptoms (I don't know how many others who had it but were asymptomatic and I don't know of any who tested positive and were asymptomatic). I was not in contact with any of them (those who were symptomatic) in prior 2 weeks before they got infected. All cases were late spring 2020 except male 28 who lived with GF— he was infected 2 months ago.
1 - age 80, female, healthy, died
1 - age 62, female, obese and diabetes, died
1- age 55, male, overweight, diabetes, died
3 - age 28 male, fit and healthy, sick in bed 1 week. his 2 young kids sick with mild symptoms, wife, either asymptomatic or not infected.
1 - age 27 female, very fit (5K and 10K athlete) and healthy, only symptoms were covid toes (toes of both feet swollen and painful with purple lesions from clots caused by the virus). Could barely walk for a week, walked with pain for several weeks after, toes are still painful but getting slowly less so for past 4 months.
1- age 28, male, sick in bed for a week,, his GF he lived with either asymptomatic or didn't get infected
Maybe I'm wrong but my guess is that only people who suspect they might be infected get tested.
One of the reasons they want as many people tested as possible so they get a real feel for how many people are infected.
But who wants to spend all that time waiting on line to get tested then have a swab shoved up their nose if they are feeling perfectly healthy?
I get the point that you can be asymptomatic and passing the disease but these people probably aren't going to be tested.
One of the reasons they want as many people tested as possible so they get a real feel for how many people are infected.
But who wants to spend all that time waiting on line to get tested then have a swab shoved up their nose if they are feeling perfectly healthy?
I get the point that you can be asymptomatic and passing the disease but these people probably aren't going to be tested.
