When it's a choice between conspiracy or incompetence, I always chose incompetence. Incompetence is something that knows no political bounds. It happens on all sides, and it doesn't even take many incompetent people to cause a problem. Sometimes it's just human nature. No one wants to look like a fool or appear to be an ineffective jackass. So you lie, or hide your mistakes. A doctor approaches you about a bunch of people in your town getting sick. What do you do? Believe him? Doubt him? Try to hide it from your boss? The last time you overreacted you got your head handed to you. Or maybe the last guy in your position was fired for overreacting. History is filled with overreactions and under-reactions.
Even now "experts" are all over the map on this. Continue the shutdown for how long? I've read two articles in main stream sites. One said 4 - 6 weeks, the other said 12 to 18 months. Mask? No mask? Social distancing or not? There are some countries not doing it and it looks like their reported numbers are not any higher.
And can reported numbers even be trusted? Again see my comment about incompetence. The only conspiracy I see is human nature. Our desire to "do something!", even before we have gather all the information. And our desire to choose sides as if one side or the other is more honest and truthful than the other. We wont' know until a year or two from now how bad this really is or isn't.
That being said I vote for aliens trying to wipe out the weak and then they will make slaves of the strongest survivors.