Soaring Gas Prices?
- Thread starter seeker6591
- Start date
NJ.COM reports continuing fall in gas prices...
From... http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/06/nj_gas_prices_drop_for_9th_str.html
Average national is $3.56 per gallon.
From... http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/06/nj_gas_prices_drop_for_9th_str.html
Average national is $3.56 per gallon.
Average national gas price is now $3.79. Story: http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/09/nj_gas_prices_dip_slightly_but.html
Obviously not.
Flash forward to today: The national average price of gas in September was $2.225 per gallon.
Just paid 2.19 at BP with my cash back (3%) credit card. Saw a no name places cash 2.099.
Thanks to the capitalistic system the high prices back then caused big US investments and as of 2014 the US is the worlds 3rd largest producer of oil.
Flash forward to today: The national average price of gas in September was $2.225 per gallon.
Just paid 2.19 at BP with my cash back (3%) credit card. Saw a no name places cash 2.099.
Thanks to the capitalistic system the high prices back then caused big US investments and as of 2014 the US is the worlds 3rd largest producer of oil.
I don't normally keep track of gas prices but I did notice recently it cost me approximately $5.00 more to fill up than it normally has in recent memory. I found it odd but wrote it off as just my mind playing tricks on me but did notice a slight increase. What is this attributed to election quickly approaching this time of year lol?
The prices didn't drop because we used less gas in response to the gov't asking us to use less; the prices dropped because the high oil prices provided incentive for the oil companies to invest in providing additional sources of the stuff. They did and now the supply of oil is greater than the demand. In addition a byproduct of the new sources of oil supplied large amounts of natural gas lowering its price and stimulating replacement of certain uses of oil with natural gas effectively further increasing the supply of oil. that gas
Why is US Oil Consumption Lower? Better Gasoline Mileage?
Posted on January 31, 2013 by Gail Tverberg
United States oil consumption in 2012 will be about 4.7 million barrels a day, or 20%, lower than it would have been, if the pre-2005 trend in oil consumption growth of 1.5% per year had continued. This drop in consumption is no doubt related to a rise in oil prices starting about 2004.
Figure 1. Comparison of Actual US Oil Consumption, with that that would have been expected if prior growth trend held. Actual based on EIA data.
Oil prices started rising rapidly in the 2004-2005 period (Figure 2, below). They reached a peak in 2008, then dipped in 2009. They are now again at a very high level.
Figure 2. US crude oil prices (based on average prices paid by US refiners for all grades of oil based on EIA data) converted to 2012$ using CPI-Urban data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Given the timing of the drop off in oil consumption, we would expect that most of the drop off would be the result of “demand destruction” as the result of high oil prices. In this post, we will see more specifically where this decline in consumption occurred.
A small part of the decline in oil consumption comes from improved gasoline mileage. My analysis incidates that about 7% of the reduction in oil use was due to better automobile mileage. The amount of savings related to improved gasoline mileage between 2004 and 2012 brought gasoline consumption down by about 347,000 barrels a day. The annual savings due to mileage improvements would be about one-eighth of this, or 43,000 barrels a day.
Apart from improved gasoline mileage, the vast majority of the savings seem to come from (1) continued shrinkage of US industrial activity, (2) a reduction in vehicle miles traveled, and (3) recessionary influences (likely related to high oil prices) on businesses, leading to job layoffs and less fuel use.
Posted on January 31, 2013 by Gail Tverberg
United States oil consumption in 2012 will be about 4.7 million barrels a day, or 20%, lower than it would have been, if the pre-2005 trend in oil consumption growth of 1.5% per year had continued. This drop in consumption is no doubt related to a rise in oil prices starting about 2004.
Figure 1. Comparison of Actual US Oil Consumption, with that that would have been expected if prior growth trend held. Actual based on EIA data.
Oil prices started rising rapidly in the 2004-2005 period (Figure 2, below). They reached a peak in 2008, then dipped in 2009. They are now again at a very high level.
Figure 2. US crude oil prices (based on average prices paid by US refiners for all grades of oil based on EIA data) converted to 2012$ using CPI-Urban data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Given the timing of the drop off in oil consumption, we would expect that most of the drop off would be the result of “demand destruction” as the result of high oil prices. In this post, we will see more specifically where this decline in consumption occurred.
A small part of the decline in oil consumption comes from improved gasoline mileage. My analysis incidates that about 7% of the reduction in oil use was due to better automobile mileage. The amount of savings related to improved gasoline mileage between 2004 and 2012 brought gasoline consumption down by about 347,000 barrels a day. The annual savings due to mileage improvements would be about one-eighth of this, or 43,000 barrels a day.
Apart from improved gasoline mileage, the vast majority of the savings seem to come from (1) continued shrinkage of US industrial activity, (2) a reduction in vehicle miles traveled, and (3) recessionary influences (likely related to high oil prices) on businesses, leading to job layoffs and less fuel use.
just the facts ma'am, just the facts.
1. The "facts" you quoted were for 2012 - a bit dated from an article by Gail Tverberg. My numbers are from Forbes and US EIA. BTW- Who the fuck is Gail Tverberg?
2 Oil and gasoline, (but not natural gas production-see #5 below) peaked in 2007, the start of the great recession.
3.Forbes: gasoline production for July 2016 was 297517 vs July 2007 298827 - pretty much flat to within 0.3%. Gasoline is projected to reach record levels for 2016.
4.Oil consumption was 20.68Mb/day for 2007 vs 19.4MB/day for 2015 approx. 0.7% decrease despite the fact that oil averaged over $100/B in 2007 vs under $50/B in 2015. Normally one would expect that when the price of something goes down consumers buy more of it - not so for oil.
5. Natural gas has been increasing from 2007 to 2015, (during the great recession) from 23103793 Mcuft in 2007 to 27306285Mcuft in 2015 about a 17% increase
1. The "facts" you quoted were for 2012 - a bit dated from an article by Gail Tverberg. My numbers are from Forbes and US EIA. BTW- Who the fuck is Gail Tverberg?
2 Oil and gasoline, (but not natural gas production-see #5 below) peaked in 2007, the start of the great recession.
3.Forbes: gasoline production for July 2016 was 297517 vs July 2007 298827 - pretty much flat to within 0.3%. Gasoline is projected to reach record levels for 2016.
4.Oil consumption was 20.68Mb/day for 2007 vs 19.4MB/day for 2015 approx. 0.7% decrease despite the fact that oil averaged over $100/B in 2007 vs under $50/B in 2015. Normally one would expect that when the price of something goes down consumers buy more of it - not so for oil.
5. Natural gas has been increasing from 2007 to 2015, (during the great recession) from 23103793 Mcuft in 2007 to 27306285Mcuft in 2015 about a 17% increase
There are many issues at hand here. The price of oil per barrel (WTI) had reached a low of approximately $27 in late January or February and since then has recently surpassed the $50 level. In retrospect, natural gas has seen a resurgence from the lows of $1.60 (BTU) to over $3.25. Part of the thinking is that we are becoming a nation of exporters with LNG which is helping to fuel this price increase. One area we seldom hear about is all the loans that our financial institutions have lent to these E&P companies many of which have declared bankruptcy. Many of these companies relied on fracking in these various formations throughout the country (Bakken, Utica, Permian Basin, etcetera) along with the pick and shovel companies. The energy industry although has improved is hurting so many other industries in the process.
