LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It was a tumultuous winter in Southern California, but if two noted oddsmakers are correct, the public will deem the first four choices in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday colts who did the bulk of their training out there.
Omaha Beach was installed as the Derby favorite, with the Bob Baffert-trained trio of Game Winner, Improbable, and Roadster holding the next three spots, when Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker and Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs set their lines following the draw for posts on Tuesday at Churchill Downs.
Omaha Beach landed post 12 and is the 5-1 favorite on the line of Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, with Battaglia listing him as the 4-1 favorite.
Watchmaker has Game Winner and Roadster as the co-second choices at 6-1, followed by Improbable at 8-1. Battaglia has Game Winner the second choice at 5-1, with Improbable and Roadster next at 6-1.
A field of 21 was entered on Tuesday for the 145th Derby. A maximum of 20 can run, so Bodexpress – who had Chris Landeros named as his rider – was relegated to the also-eligible list. He has until scratch time on Friday morning to draw into the race. After that, he’s out, and his connections have said he will go straight to the Preakness on May 18 if that happens.
Bodexpress earned 40 points for his second-place finish in the Florida Derby, the same amount as Spinoff. But Spinoff was preferred owing to the tie-breaker, unrestricted stakes earnings. Spinoff has $224,000 compared to Bodexpress’s $188,000.
This is the seventh year Churchill Downs has used a points system to determine the field for the Derby, and this year marks the highest amount of points required to make the field. Never before has a horse with 40 points been excluded. Bodexpress also was squeezed out by Master Fencer, the Japanese invader who got a berth via the separate Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.
When Omaha Beach got post 12, only that and post 3 remained during the random draw. By My Standards ended up with post 3.
“It’s nice being outside a little bit,” said Richard Mandella, who trains Omaha Beach. He said jockey Mike Smith would have options from there. “It’ll give him a chance to size the race up, not have to commit too early,” Mandella said.
For Baffert, Improbable got post 5, with Game Winner in 16 and Roadster in 17, those two in the six-horse auxiliary gate parked outside the main 14-horse gate.
“At the end of the day you have to have the horse; if your horse shows up that’s more important,” Baffert said.
Roadster’s post 17 is winless in 40 starts.
“Apollo curse. Can’t be done,” Baffert said, jokingly referencing that Justify last year became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without a start at 2.
Baffert said that “After watching Big Brown gallop in the 20 hole, it really doesn’t make a difference.”
The horse who seemed most impacted by the draw was War of Will, who landed the rail, causing his trainer, Mark Casse, to shake his head in resignation when the post was announced.
Casse has said repeatedly that War of Will is going to be sent early in the race, which now seems even more paramount, as he’ll need an alert beginning to avoid being shuffled back in traffic coming through the lane the first time of the 1 1/4-mile race.
“You know what, it could be worse I think,” Casse told the Churchill Downs publicity team. “Our horse is really on his game, so he’ll come away from there running. We’ll probably be on the lead. I think we’ll probably be on the lead and play catch me if you can. And you know if we come away from there like he normally does, we’re going to come away from there running. At least we have the shortest way around. I’ve thought I had great draws before and gotten wiped out."
The only other news development Tuesday was that trainer Todd Pletcher officially named Corey Lanerie as the rider for Cutting Humor, the Sunland Derby winner.