2019 Kentucky Derby

#1
Anybody betting the derby this year? Omaha Beach established himself winning the Arkansas Derby on Saturday with Mike Smith riding as the possible betting favorite. And not surprising, Bob Baffert has three colts that have legitimate chances of winning including the two year old champ Game Winner.

This year presents what appears to be one of the most wide open affairs in many years.
 
#2
Very wide open EB, Omaha Beach ran well in the slop and beat a solid horse in Improbable. Roadster looked great in the Santa Anita, but there are a lot of other horses who ran well in some of the other G1, G2 stakes races during the Derby Points Meet.

I will be betting for sure, but almost never bet favorites. Omaha Beach will almost certainly be the ML favorite regardless of post position. But lots of value to be had with a lot of solid horses, exotics could pay off big.
 
#4
Very wide open EB, Omaha Beach ran well in the slop and beat a solid horse in Improbable. Roadster looked great in the Santa Anita, but there are a lot of other horses who ran well in some of the other G1, G2 stakes races during the Derby Points Meet.

I will be betting for sure, but almost never bet favorites. Omaha Beach will almost certainly be the ML favorite regardless of post position. But lots of value to be had with a lot of solid horses, exotics could pay off big.
I agree wholeheartedly. Outside of the California contingent, including Game Winner, I expect Tacitus to take money as well, They should all be within 4 - 1 to 8 - 1.

After that horses I could use depending upon the draw are Vekoma, Code of Honor, War of Will and underneath Win Win Win. I was hoping that Anothertwistafate had gotten in but at #23 it does not look good for him.

I was at the Derby two years ago when Always Dreaming won. That racetrack was severely biased from the three straight days of rain making it nearly impossible to be competitive from the outer part of the racetrack. Ironically, Always Dreaming never won another race after his Derby win.
 
#6
It's actually "I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered."

Here's another great one...

"In 1969, I gave up women and alcohol - it was the worst 20 minutes of my life."
 
#7
I have always wanted to go to the derby. I really have to check it out.

I like War of Will, and Win Win Win, horse I am really paying close attention too is By My Standards. He was flying down the stretch at the Louisiana Derby and seemed to be getting faster as the race was closing, he definitely had more distance left in him. Second Place Horse, Spinoff was also flying down stretch and seemed to have more distance in him as well. Fletcher horse, so always has a shot.

Anxious to see the post positions, so many horses that could win.
 
#8
horse I am really paying close attention too is By My Standards.
Funny you should mention him. I bet out on him when second best to Gun It in his second lifetime start. (the full brother to Gun Runner) Not sure if you have TVG, but one of their analysts, Matt Carothers, loved the horse that day at a HUGE mutual. The nice thing about BMS is that he can be tactical and with the right trip can certainly win. Plus his trainer Bret Calhoun is one of the best in the business.

As for attending, it's an absolute madhouse and doubt I'll be back anytime soon. But it was well worth it.
 
#9
Early Kentucky Derby Odds Horse Morning Line Omaha Beach 9-2 Roadster 5-1 Tacitus 6-1 Game Winner 8-1 Improbable 10-1 Maximum Security 10-1 Code of Honor 15-1 Vekoma 15-1 By My Standards 20-1 War of Will 20-1 Country House 30-1 Cutting Humor 30-1 Haikal 30-1 Long Range Toddy 30-1 Tax 30-1 Spinoff 30-1 Win Win Win 30-1 Gray Magician 50-1 Master Fencer 50-1 Plus Que Parfait 50-1

Got this off of HRN yesterday. Look at the value in the top 5 -7 horses.
 
#10
Value for sure, especially in the exotics. War of Will at 20-1? He had a bad trip in the LA Derby and everyone is off the bandwagon.

It's interesting that Omaha Beach, a bit of a hanger on turf and unable to break his maiden, switches to dirt and is the ML favorite.

It seems to me, without the PP draw, that Maximum Security will be the pacesetter. I don't see anyone running with him early.

I love Derby Day, the undercard will be spectacular as well. Hopefully, the weather cooperates.
 
#11
Looks like we are the only Derby fans!

I could see Grey Magician up front early, or if he gets in on a scratch, Bodexpress.
Hard to go gate to wire with so many out of the gate. I don't see any AP's or Justify's in this crop of three year olds.

OB will go off 3-1, I think the other top 5-6 are all about where they will be come post time.

Whats your thoughts on Cutting Humor?
 
#12
I was thinking the same. Guess we're the only horseplayers

Nothing would surprise me with a Jason Servis runner. (Maximum Security) He could wire the field. (not with my money though)

Gray Magician is not for me. Seemed outclassed in his California starts. Gets in from the UAE Derby placing. I do not think he belongs.

Wow, Omaha Beach at 3-1 assuming a decent post? I can't imagine anyone being under 9-2. The field is just too deep.

Cutting Humor had a nightmare trip as the favorite in the Southwest at Oaklawn, then beat Anothertwistafate with a great trip at Sunland. From what I hear, his last two works at Palm Meadow were lights out. I like the additional rest as well. Not impossible. I just NEVER have luck with Pletcher.
 
#14
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It was a tumultuous winter in Southern California, but if two noted oddsmakers are correct, the public will deem the first four choices in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday colts who did the bulk of their training out there.

Omaha Beach was installed as the Derby favorite, with the Bob Baffert-trained trio of Game Winner, Improbable, and Roadster holding the next three spots, when Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker and Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs set their lines following the draw for posts on Tuesday at Churchill Downs.

Omaha Beach landed post 12 and is the 5-1 favorite on the line of Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, with Battaglia listing him as the 4-1 favorite.

Watchmaker has Game Winner and Roadster as the co-second choices at 6-1, followed by Improbable at 8-1. Battaglia has Game Winner the second choice at 5-1, with Improbable and Roadster next at 6-1.

A field of 21 was entered on Tuesday for the 145th Derby. A maximum of 20 can run, so Bodexpress – who had Chris Landeros named as his rider – was relegated to the also-eligible list. He has until scratch time on Friday morning to draw into the race. After that, he’s out, and his connections have said he will go straight to the Preakness on May 18 if that happens.

Bodexpress earned 40 points for his second-place finish in the Florida Derby, the same amount as Spinoff. But Spinoff was preferred owing to the tie-breaker, unrestricted stakes earnings. Spinoff has $224,000 compared to Bodexpress’s $188,000.

This is the seventh year Churchill Downs has used a points system to determine the field for the Derby, and this year marks the highest amount of points required to make the field. Never before has a horse with 40 points been excluded. Bodexpress also was squeezed out by Master Fencer, the Japanese invader who got a berth via the separate Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

When Omaha Beach got post 12, only that and post 3 remained during the random draw. By My Standards ended up with post 3.

“It’s nice being outside a little bit,” said Richard Mandella, who trains Omaha Beach. He said jockey Mike Smith would have options from there. “It’ll give him a chance to size the race up, not have to commit too early,” Mandella said.

For Baffert, Improbable got post 5, with Game Winner in 16 and Roadster in 17, those two in the six-horse auxiliary gate parked outside the main 14-horse gate.

“At the end of the day you have to have the horse; if your horse shows up that’s more important,” Baffert said.

Roadster’s post 17 is winless in 40 starts.

“Apollo curse. Can’t be done,” Baffert said, jokingly referencing that Justify last year became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without a start at 2.

Baffert said that “After watching Big Brown gallop in the 20 hole, it really doesn’t make a difference.”

The horse who seemed most impacted by the draw was War of Will, who landed the rail, causing his trainer, Mark Casse, to shake his head in resignation when the post was announced.

Casse has said repeatedly that War of Will is going to be sent early in the race, which now seems even more paramount, as he’ll need an alert beginning to avoid being shuffled back in traffic coming through the lane the first time of the 1 1/4-mile race.

“You know what, it could be worse I think,” Casse told the Churchill Downs publicity team. “Our horse is really on his game, so he’ll come away from there running. We’ll probably be on the lead. I think we’ll probably be on the lead and play catch me if you can. And you know if we come away from there like he normally does, we’re going to come away from there running. At least we have the shortest way around. I’ve thought I had great draws before and gotten wiped out."

The only other news development Tuesday was that trainer Todd Pletcher officially named Corey Lanerie as the rider for Cutting Humor, the Sunland Derby winner.
 
#16
It was wide open in my opinion before this scratch, now its REALLY wide open. Haikal looks to be a scratch, and a sloppy track with rain being forecasted.
 
#17
Interesting forum (I guess) but I am a bit confused as I always was told that the reason we have horse racing ( and the corresponding $ from the betting) was to improve the breed; yet I don't see any mention of that in the posts.
 
#19
@ Genius

Through the years the horses have become more fragile than even previously. Remember, these are 1000-1200 lb animals running 30 miles an hour on ankles that are not much bigger than an average human, think about that, the laws of physics alone and its a true testament to how powerful these animals are.

True, the betting public does contribute to making the breed/sport better, but bloodlines have been so diluted its hard to know what is what. Thats why the two most recent Triple Crown Winners are studs now, Owners can't chance a catastrophic injury when these studs are worth tens of millions. Factor in the Saudi money that plays a part, and stables/owners are trying their hardest to work the horses harder at an earlier age (2) and prep them quicker for the Triple Crown Races, and then stud them immediately after.

This years Derby is wide open, it should be very interesting. I love the action and speed of the race, and if you know what your doing and looking at numbers the right way, there is some money to be made for some.
 
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