What are the odds of this happening?
- Thread starter Slinky Bender
- Start date
Decided to make some enoki mushroom egg pancakes for dinner tonight. Took carton of 12 that I just purchased from Stew Leonard's and cracked 3 eggs into a bowl.
All 3 eggs had double yokes.
I will update this thread as I open more eggs from that carton over the coming week or so.
Ps. I let out a "holy crap" when I cracked the 3 eggs and saw the double yokes. My SO came in to the kitchen to see what the fuss was all about. I showed her the 6 yokes and said "Do you know what the odds of that is?" She said "No, but I have a feeling you are going t tell me"
I said "1 in 1000 for 1 double yolk so its 1 in 1,000,000,000 for 3 in a row"
She walking away muttering something like "how the f**k do you know all this stuff and better yet — why?"
All 3 eggs had double yokes.
I will update this thread as I open more eggs from that carton over the coming week or so.
Ps. I let out a "holy crap" when I cracked the 3 eggs and saw the double yokes. My SO came in to the kitchen to see what the fuss was all about. I showed her the 6 yokes and said "Do you know what the odds of that is?" She said "No, but I have a feeling you are going t tell me"
I said "1 in 1000 for 1 double yolk so its 1 in 1,000,000,000 for 3 in a row"
She walking away muttering something like "how the f**k do you know all this stuff and better yet — why?"
Ok, so far out of 11 eggs from my carton from Stew Leonard's I had 11 eggs with double yolks. If your 1:1000 odds are correct for this happening randomly, this means the odd are 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000.
So, making a reckless inference that the odds are so astronomical for the outcome can not be random and that it is unlikely that one chicken produced all 11 eggs in that carton so something else is going on with more than just a few chickens. Perhaps the egg farm has a bunch of chickens genetically predisposed to laying double yolk eggs or perhaps there is something in their feed or both.
ps. these eggs are great for soft boiling— lots of yolk.
So, making a reckless inference that the odds are so astronomical for the outcome can not be random and that it is unlikely that one chicken produced all 11 eggs in that carton so something else is going on with more than just a few chickens. Perhaps the egg farm has a bunch of chickens genetically predisposed to laying double yolk eggs or perhaps there is something in their feed or both.
ps. these eggs are great for soft boiling— lots of yolk.
Huh? Many different ways to show it's a different egg. You can only crack an egg open once. Wear a different shirt. Or the old "kidnapper showing the date on the newspaper" angle might alleviate that potential allegation.
Of course, I wouldn't have expected the filming to start with the first egg or the second. But after that, I would have been filming each egg. With just one left, there certainly isn't any reason to start now.
Of course, I wouldn't have expected the filming to start with the first egg or the second. But after that, I would have been filming each egg. With just one left, there certainly isn't any reason to start now.
If you buy a lottery ticket every time you get a double-yolk egg because you're having a lucky streak you'll be disappointed to learn it's not as uncommon as we've made to believe, as Dr Karl Kruszelnicki explains.
Double-yolks happen more frequently in young chickens, when they're in their early days of egg-production—20-28 weeks old. These young chickens (still getting the hang of being a grown-up hen) produce a double-yolk egg once every 100 lays.
But when you average out the number of double-yolk eggs from chickens of all ages, about one out of every 1,000 eggs has two yolks. So, ignoring all other factors, the chances of getting four double-yolk eggs in a row from a single carton should be (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000), or one in every trillion.
But there are other factors—lots of them.
First, double-yolk eggs are usually larger than single-yolk eggs. Eggs are usually sold in the sizes of small, medium and large. So if you find a double-yolk egg in a carton of large eggs—the chances are higher than normal that another double-yolk egg could be found.
Second, the eggs in any given cardboard carton are most likely to have come from the same flock. Chickens in the same flock are usually the same age. Again, this increases your chances of getting a second double-yolk egg, if you've already picked the first one.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational...the-odds-of-getting-a-double-yolk-egg/7625330
Double-yolks happen more frequently in young chickens, when they're in their early days of egg-production—20-28 weeks old. These young chickens (still getting the hang of being a grown-up hen) produce a double-yolk egg once every 100 lays.
But when you average out the number of double-yolk eggs from chickens of all ages, about one out of every 1,000 eggs has two yolks. So, ignoring all other factors, the chances of getting four double-yolk eggs in a row from a single carton should be (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000), or one in every trillion.
But there are other factors—lots of them.
First, double-yolk eggs are usually larger than single-yolk eggs. Eggs are usually sold in the sizes of small, medium and large. So if you find a double-yolk egg in a carton of large eggs—the chances are higher than normal that another double-yolk egg could be found.
Second, the eggs in any given cardboard carton are most likely to have come from the same flock. Chickens in the same flock are usually the same age. Again, this increases your chances of getting a second double-yolk egg, if you've already picked the first one.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational...the-odds-of-getting-a-double-yolk-egg/7625330
Dr Kruszelnicki is not correct with his probability calculation unless the carton he is referring to is a 4 egg carton. His probability calculation would also be correct if he said: the chances of getting four double-yolk eggs in a row from the 1st four eggs picked from a single carton should be (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000), or one in every trillion.