What are the odds of this happening?

Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#1
#1
Holy shit. Both of the last 2 eggs in this dozen eggs I got have 2 yolks. This is the same dozen that I previously got a double yolk in. Somebody please check my math on this but by my calculations (since the odds of getting a double yolk egg are supposed to be 1 in a thousand) the odds of getting 3 double yolk eggs in a dozen should be ( 12 choose 3 / 12 factorial ) X ( 1 / 1,000 ) = 1 in 2,177,280,000. Yeah, one in over 2 billion (again, if my math is right - someone please check it). The odds are so staggeringly against that so now I am wondering what this company is feeding these chickens to make this happen?
 
S

Spazworks

#3
#3
With scientific assistance, eggs are produced quicker and with chemicals.

These are no longer farm eggs, you are/we are eating others science projects.
 
genius

genius

#5
#5
Slinky Bender said:
Holy shit. Both of the last 2 eggs in this dozen eggs I got have 2 yolks. This is the same dozen that I previously got a double yolk in. Somebody please check my math on this but by my calculations (since the odds of getting a double yolk egg are supposed to be 1 in a thousand) the odds of getting 3 double yolk eggs in a dozen should be ( 12 choose 3 / 12 factorial ) X ( 1 / 1,000 ) = 1 in 2,177,280,000. Yeah, one in over 2 billion (again, if my math is right - someone please check it). The odds are so staggeringly against that so now I am wondering what this company is feeding these chickens to make this happen?
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Your logic may be a tad flawed. The propensity to lay double yolk eggs has a highly genetic factor. So even though the odds are 1/1000 to lay double yolk eggs this does not mean that the odds of a random chicken laying a double yolk egg is 1/1000. For example (just an illustrative possibility- not based on research on my part), say in 1,000 chickens there is 1 chicken that has the genetic trait to lay double yolk eggs. That chicken lays 10 double yolk eggs and all the others lay 10 single yolk eggs. The packing company takes the eggs out of the nest (or whatever they call the place where the eggs are laid). If the eggs were randomly selected the odds would still be 1/1000 but since the eggs are taken from the same nest at (say) approximately the same time, the odds of the double yolk eggs being grouped would be higher in the carton you had and in the carton you bought later assuming from the same producer than would be predicted by random probability.

That's my theory - or perhaps you just randomly had a 1 in 2,177,280,000 chance occurrence - what do you think is more probable?

disclaimer: although genius is not an egg expert he is expert in reliability and failure prediction. A double yolk can be (very loosely) considered as a failure to produce a single yolk egg. In my experience, whenever there is a grouping of failures from a batch of highly reliable items that is much higher than the predicted rate the cause of the failures tend not to be random.
 
Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#6
#6
The problem with your scenario is the chickens lay a maximum of one egg per day and the way egg "factories" work is there is no "nest" as we know it, just a hole in the floor where the eggs immediately go thru so the chances of there being 2 eggs from the same chicken in a single dozen are flat out zero.

I will add that even in chickens with a "propensity" to lay double yolks, it doesnt mean they lay 10 out of 10 double yolks. It means they lay 1 out of 10 double yolks instead of 0 out of 10 double yolks. So basically it is 1 out of 1,000 be ause 1 out of 100 chickens lays 1 out of 10 eggs with a double yolk.

But my point was that it is so improbable that I though the mostly likely explanation was the farm feeding something to their chickens which was scarily altering their geneitics causing more of them to have the propensity to lay double yolks. I find THAT the most likely scenario.
 
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backseat

backseat

#7
#7
Slinky Bender said:
The problem with your scenario is the chickens lay a maximum of one egg per day and the way egg "factories" work is there is no "nest" as we know it, just a hole in the floor where the eggs immediately go thru so the chances of there being 2 eggs from the same chicken in a single dozen are flat out zero.

I will add that even in chickens with a "propensity" to lay double yolks, it doesnt mean they lay 10 out of 10 double yolks. It means they lay 1 out of 10 double yolks instead of 0 out of 10 double yolks. So basically it is 1 out of 1,000 be ause 1 out of 100 chickens lays 1 out of 10 eggs with a double yolk.

But my point was that it is so improbable that I though the mostly likely explanation was the farm feeding something to their chickens which was scarily altering their geneitics causing more of them to have the propensity to lay double yolks. I find THAT the most likely scenario.
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Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#9
#9
To be clear, it is not that I disagree with the failure analogy. It is just that I see a failure occuring as the grouping of a chicking laying 4 eggs in a row with double yolks. But because of the way chickens and egg factories work, that would still result in those 4 eggs being distributed over 4 days and being hundreds of boxes apart.

Also I believe that if one did lay 10 out of 10 with double yolks that would mean that 9,999 would have to lay 0 out of 10 making it virtually impossible to get 2 in one dozen.
 
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P

prospekt1

#10
#10
I believe there are too many variables in this equation to determine the probability unless you make assumptions on certain variables(or find out exactly how the egg making process works). That is where the varying opinions lie.
 
Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#11
#11
When calculating probabilities you pretty much always have to make assumptions (like the usual that arrivals are a poisson process) but this discussion would be more interesting if the counter theories were actually presented with some sort of probabilty calculations like the thesis was.
 
L

LISteve

#12
#12
They say that very young hens when first starting to lay eggs often lay double yolk eggs ... so if there was an area of chickens that were all raised together then all the chickens would be young in that batch .. raising the odds.
 
S

Spazworks

#13
#13
I happened to drop an egg this morning and it landed squarely onto my big toe prior to rolling over between my big toe and second toe.

It didn't crack and acted completely unaware of it's journey.

Now I ask, what are the odds? :D
 
Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#15
#15
No. It was really a one-time thing. I don't think I've seen a single double yolk in the last year. And that's why I thought it was so strange - you go a year never seeing a single double yolk, but there were three in a single dozen? Perhaps the most logical explanation is that someone at the packing plant was picking out the double yolk eggs for themselves and then lost track of what carton they were in.
 
hardndslick

hardndslick

#16
#16
Slinky Bender said:
No. It was really a one-time thing. I don't think I've seen a single double yolk in the last year. And that's why I thought it was so strange - you go a year never seeing a single double yolk, but there were three in a single dozen? Perhaps the most logical explanation is that someone at the packing plant was picking out the double yolk eggs for themselves and then lost track of what carton they were in.
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That happened to me recently. I bought jumbo eggs an got two eggs with double yokes. I didn't ask the family if the same thing happened to them from that dozen. but its possible. I just figured that's what happens when I buy eggs from meat farms.

For me its a double win. The yoke is the best part.
 
J

justme

homo economicus
#18
#18
I agree there must have been some human intervention in your carton. I like your theory for no other reason than it presupposes some very curious behavior.

Btw the formula you want is (12C3)(.999)^9(.001)^3

No need to divide by 12!, but you do need the other term that’s admittedly very close to 1.
 
Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#19
#19
When something extremely improbable occurs I think it's more often do to human intervention than blind luck. But then again, I've come across a lot of cheats.
 
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