Dumb questions on sports betting

#41
My bad break of the night.

After 2nd half was starting decided to do Tee Higgins for next touchdown at +1200 odds. Had it in draftkings app, hit submit wheel started spinning to accept. I then look up to see Tee Higgins running into the end zone and start celebrating, look down and DK says sorry we had an error processing your bet.

FML!
Can I tell you how many times this has happened to me? You sit looking - make a decision, hit the button and JUST THEN it happens.
Buddy of mine said "you're having selective memory" I said, "No - it really does happen more than you realize."

It's like the poker tournament I was in at Borgata. I probably got 7-2 off suit 10 times. Naturally, I folded each of them. But 5 of those would have given me a boat for the win. People always say "you're just remembering selectively". I'm not. It actually happened that way...

There are moments you can see things clealy. I was playing a friendly game once and folded 8 2 off suit, but turned to a friend, showed him what I folded and whispered "I know the 2 is going to play" Sure enough two 2s on the flop and a 3rd on the river. Should I have played if I "know"? No, absolutely not. But there are just those moments where intuition tells you to do something.

One of my favorite stories involved Belmont back when I was learning how to handicap. I accidentally did a triple, and didn't have a clue how I'd miscommunicated. My girlfriend and her grandmother were with me. Her grandmother said "it will be a lucky accident". It certainly was...$500 lucky accident. Now when I make errors I convince myself "lucky accident" to justify it - but I haven't ever had another lucky accident again.
 
#42
I think what you meant to communicate was that sharp bettors can minimize their losses through disciplined money management and wagering when they clearly have an edge. My expertise is the horses, both harness and thoroughbreds where I have been a successful owner and gambler. The game is a very difficult one with take outs ranging from 15% to 25% but most web platforms are comping their VIP players over 10% of all their wagering regardless if they win or lose. I've weened myself slowly away from harness racing due to a dozen trainers who seem to win 95% of the races in PA/NJ/NY. Plus the pools are very small, making it difficult to make a significant wager without distorting the odds. It's very difficult to find value driven wagers where you have an edge over the crowd. I've also competed in numerous online thoroughbred handicapping tournaments with good results. It's a tremendous grind though, the tournament culture, and very expensive as the weekly contest fees certainly add up.
Actually I was saying that bad betters can minimize their losses. Sharp betters can make money.
Bad betters minimize their losses using tried-and-true tools to minimize risk, but the odds still work against them. What they don't have is - as you point out - the tools that sharp betters have. The money management, the intuition, the knowledge - whatever it is that works for the professionals to make the money they make.

I remind people that if you look at the final table of most major poker tournaments, you'll consistently see the top players of the time showing up. Is that luck? Of course not. It's skill. You would likely see the same in a blackjack tournament (is there such a thing? I imagine there is). I doubt you could see it in Roulette or other games of pure chance. Horse racing you definitely have people making money consistently. My friend who owns horses does it because he looks for the information that usually makes a difference.
I don't follow horses as closely as he does, so if I break even on the day, I consider that a really good day at the track. He consistently has money in his online account.
I noticed he is very controlled, very systematic, and doesn't just bet "to bet". I see too many people betting just to bet the race. He'll sit and wait 3, 4, 5 races until he gets the one he wants, and he'll make a pretty good sized bet.
He did give me bad advice though. I once was in a pool for March Madness. It's the final four and I managed to get all 4 of my choices in. If the dark horse won it all, I'd have won $2,500. I asked him "do I hedge the semifinal game, because they are the outsider who slipped in - if I place a bet on UNC to beat them, at least I make something." He said "No - I always go with the bet that took me. I never hedge." I should've hedged, and I always do now. Better to get something than nothing. It's part of why I am ahead overall. When you get opportunities to hedge, you take them.

One interesting way, I found this in tennis, is to bet the underdog (usually in women's) if they are +120 or so. It is not unusual for the underdog to win the first set. Once that happens, you may see the odds flip and you can bet the favorite at +120 (or more). Guaranteed win at that point.
 
#43
He did give me bad advice though. I once was in a pool for March Madness. It's the final four and I managed to get all 4 of my choices in. If the dark horse won it all, I'd have won $2,500. I asked him "do I hedge the semifinal game, because they are the outsider who slipped in - if I place a bet on UNC to beat them, at least I make something." He said "No - I always go with the bet that took me. I never hedge." I should've hedged, and I always do now. Better to get something than nothing. It's part of why I am ahead overall. When you get opportunities to hedge, you take them.
To hedge really comes down to how much it will cost. I tend to agree with you. If I am alive for a large pick four or pick five, I often will develop a strategy, to cash if a longshot beats me. A few years ago, I was alive in the final leg of a pick four, it was Breeder's Cup 2 year old race, and I had the three logical horses to cash - $5,000. It was a small field, six horses and the three remaining were all over 25-1. I crafted a wager the cost about $400 that covered the three longshots that guaranteed I would cash somewhere in the $4,000 - $5,000 range. When one of the longshots one, I made the right move. (The top three horses ran 4th, 5th and 6th) Now my original wager was $96, to hit for the $5,000. (50-1) I also understand your friend's logic and basically agree with him as now I changed my original return on investment dramatically. (9-1)
 
#44
Yup, as you put it the odds are really good that they will win a game. The question is will you win any money.
Doesn't factors like Money Line and Run Line factor into your system?
The money line is a huge consideration and your outlay after losing your first two wagers could be enormous.

Not a system I could ever subscribe to.
 
#45
To hedge really comes down to how much it will cost. I tend to agree with you. If I am alive for a large pick four or pick five, I often will develop a strategy, to cash if a longshot beats me. A few years ago, I was alive in the final leg of a pick four, it was Breeder's Cup 2 year old race, and I had the three logical horses to cash - $5,000. It was a small field, six horses and the three remaining were all over 25-1. I crafted a wager the cost about $400 that covered the three longshots that guaranteed I would cash somewhere in the $4,000 - $5,000 range. When one of the longshots one, I made the right move. (The top three horses ran 4th, 5th and 6th) Now my original wager was $96, to hit for the $5,000. (50-1) I also understand your friend's logic and basically agree with him as now I changed my original return on investment dramatically. (9-1)
Yeah, the situation I had, a pool bet with a longshot potential winner, is the kind've the opposite of what you seem to have laid out. I had a feeling my longshot would lose in the semis. If they won - pretty good payout just for making the finals, more if they win it all, but nothing if they lose. So a hedge probably was the right thing to do, and one I do now in similar situations. When you're sitting there thinking "I got a 50-1 and I'm going to ride it", and someone backdoors a win and your 50-1 goes to zero...well the 9-1 still looks damn good.
I see what you're saying with the pick four. Makes sense - you have a chance to lose if some dark horse hits. It's the smart move.
 
#46
Yeah, the situation I had, a pool bet with a longshot potential winner, is the kind've the opposite of what you seem to have laid out. I had a feeling my longshot would lose in the semis. If they won - pretty good payout just for making the finals, more if they win it all, but nothing if they lose. So a hedge probably was the right thing to do, and one I do now in similar situations. When you're sitting there thinking "I got a 50-1 and I'm going to ride it", and someone backdoors a win and your 50-1 goes to zero...well the 9-1 still looks damn good.
I see what you're saying with the pick four. Makes sense - you have a chance to lose if some dark horse hits. It's the smart move.
This sounds like a lot of work. So many variables and unknowns. Mongering is so much more enjoyable
 
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