Dumb questions on sports betting
- Thread starter pokler
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The only betting game I know of that a bettor can influence the odds (and only slightly) is blackjack by using card counting. It works for single deck games.
As I posted I almost always won a at blackjack at 'friendly" games because I understood probability and the others went with their gut. I didn't count cards. Always volunteering to be the dealer also helped. When we played poker I also won. I never played at a casino and never intend to.
From what I know about casinos is that if you happen to be a big winner in a casino they invite you back with comps. There will always be a winner who can guess on something random such as betting on black on roulette 10 times in a row and winning. The odds of such happening is a bout 1 in 1000 so if enough people are using that "system" there will be winners but so many more losers to more than make up for the winners.
And then there are others who don't understand probability think that if they see a run on a certain color, say 9 black, in a row, that they should bet on red because the odds of 10 black hits is about 1 in 1000. However the wheel has no memory so the odds of the 10th black is still 0.5.
BTW, do a search on can casinos ban bettors and see what you get.
As I posted I almost always won a at blackjack at 'friendly" games because I understood probability and the others went with their gut. I didn't count cards. Always volunteering to be the dealer also helped. When we played poker I also won. I never played at a casino and never intend to.
From what I know about casinos is that if you happen to be a big winner in a casino they invite you back with comps. There will always be a winner who can guess on something random such as betting on black on roulette 10 times in a row and winning. The odds of such happening is a bout 1 in 1000 so if enough people are using that "system" there will be winners but so many more losers to more than make up for the winners.
And then there are others who don't understand probability think that if they see a run on a certain color, say 9 black, in a row, that they should bet on red because the odds of 10 black hits is about 1 in 1000. However the wheel has no memory so the odds of the 10th black is still 0.5.
BTW, do a search on can casinos ban bettors and see what you get.
My bad break of the night.
After 2nd half was starting decided to do Tee Higgins for next touchdown at +1200 odds. Had it in draftkings app, hit submit wheel started spinning to accept. I then look up to see Tee Higgins running into the end zone and start celebrating, look down and DK says sorry we had an error processing your bet.
FML!
After 2nd half was starting decided to do Tee Higgins for next touchdown at +1200 odds. Had it in draftkings app, hit submit wheel started spinning to accept. I then look up to see Tee Higgins running into the end zone and start celebrating, look down and DK says sorry we had an error processing your bet.
FML!
I think what you meant to communicate was that sharp bettors can minimize their losses through disciplined money management and wagering when they clearly have an edge. My expertise is the horses, both harness and thoroughbreds where I have been a successful owner and gambler. The game is a very difficult one with take outs ranging from 15% to 25% but most web platforms are comping their VIP players over 10% of all their wagering regardless if they win or lose. I've weened myself slowly away from harness racing due to a dozen trainers who seem to win 95% of the races in PA/NJ/NY. Plus the pools are very small, making it difficult to make a significant wager without distorting the odds. It's very difficult to find value driven wagers where you have an edge over the crowd. I've also competed in numerous online thoroughbred handicapping tournaments with good results. It's a tremendous grind though, the tournament culture, and very expensive as the weekly contest fees certainly add up.
Very similar to baseball where trainers using undetectable PEDs have a clear advantage over their competition. They still have to run the race and will still lose more races than they win.(But they still pay owners and trainers up to fourth place) For example, Jorge Navarro who is off to the slammer for five years and owes 27 million in restitution, his win percentage was close to 30% which is double that to top trainers that are established and do not have blemishes on their record.
So for the most part thoroughbred racing is not fixed although you will have random races where a trainer will have a distinctive edge over the competition.
So for the most part thoroughbred racing is not fixed although you will have random races where a trainer will have a distinctive edge over the competition.
For instance Dodger won 71.3% of home games . So in a 3 game home series odds are really good they're going to win a game . Idea is bet one game at a time .Win first game and no more. If a lose then double it up. Laying a lot of odds but percentage wise , you have an excellent chance of winning. Not 100% but odds definitely in your favor. That's rare in the betting world
The counting only improves the probability slightly. What it does, though, is allow you to know when to time bigger bets to offset the smaller losses. So while the probablility of winning is only slightly improved, knowing the moments when the probability is higher allows you to bet more.
As for banning bettors, the reality is they can. They keep an eye out for known counters and other people they've banned, and they trade information on who they've banned.
Someone mentioned that if you're good at it, they may hire you to look for others. Maybe. I never counted often enough to get caught, and even if I did I don't think that's a job I'd want. It's boring keeping an eye on people and looking for telltale signs.
I had a friend who went on a heater in Vegas. He was winning big, wound up winning over $20k at blackjack. Played all night and was hitting like mad. They do all kinds of things to mess you up. They alter the regular dealer shifts, partly to slow down play and throw you off. They have people who join the table and start asking questions, trying to get you to lose focus (assuming you're counting). They'll have people bump you if there's a crowd. I know - I watched it as my friend was winning.
As for banning bettors, the reality is they can. They keep an eye out for known counters and other people they've banned, and they trade information on who they've banned.
Someone mentioned that if you're good at it, they may hire you to look for others. Maybe. I never counted often enough to get caught, and even if I did I don't think that's a job I'd want. It's boring keeping an eye on people and looking for telltale signs.
I had a friend who went on a heater in Vegas. He was winning big, wound up winning over $20k at blackjack. Played all night and was hitting like mad. They do all kinds of things to mess you up. They alter the regular dealer shifts, partly to slow down play and throw you off. They have people who join the table and start asking questions, trying to get you to lose focus (assuming you're counting). They'll have people bump you if there's a crowd. I know - I watched it as my friend was winning.
The only issue I have with people who complain about horse racing being fixed is that it doesn't matter if you don't follow the horses too closely (and most bettors don't) and you're just playing odds. Reality is, it's like baseball, as you said. The winning percentages are low. A good friend of mine owns horses (I owned a few with him, but after I'd sunk a few thousand in to no avail, I gave up) and knows how to bet them. He follows them all very closely, and he looks for weird odds advantages that tell him a story. A horse coming off a long layoff, a workout that looks "off" or "on". These things tell him what's going on - someone's trying to set the table (as he once put it to me).
It's not so much that the races are "fixed" as in someone showing up and paying off jockeys, but as you mentioned, using tools in their kit. Back in the day, I remember my friend calling me and saying "Woody is headed into the stable with his black bag" We all went out and bet on that horse. Worked 3 times, and the 4th time his horse came up short. So the 'fixing' isn't really a sure thing. It's just an edge - and most people don't even know. The only person who it really impacts is the one who knows...and even then it's not much of a major impact on overall betting.
It's not so much that the races are "fixed" as in someone showing up and paying off jockeys, but as you mentioned, using tools in their kit. Back in the day, I remember my friend calling me and saying "Woody is headed into the stable with his black bag" We all went out and bet on that horse. Worked 3 times, and the 4th time his horse came up short. So the 'fixing' isn't really a sure thing. It's just an edge - and most people don't even know. The only person who it really impacts is the one who knows...and even then it's not much of a major impact on overall betting.