Bad Beat Stories.
- Thread starter Waterclone
- Start date
Tournament 5 handed action. I had pocket 5's and was on the big blind. One caller and no raisers. I didnt bother to raise because low pockets are like...you know, anyways flop comes out 5 c 7c and 5 s.
I slow play of course. check check
turn is 4c check, bet I reraise he calls.
river is 3 c, check bet, reraise he goes all in I call.
I triumphantly throw down my 4 of a kind and he smugly turned over his 6d, 6 c.
luckily I had some chips left over and came in 2nd overall.
I slow play of course. check check
turn is 4c check, bet I reraise he calls.
river is 3 c, check bet, reraise he goes all in I call.
I triumphantly throw down my 4 of a kind and he smugly turned over his 6d, 6 c.
luckily I had some chips left over and came in 2nd overall.
The implication here would be that, at the big tourneys, 9 out of 10 at the final table would be lucky, and one skillful.
A lot of these final table get the same pros, over and over again.
Luck is a factor, and in a race, as they say, I'd rather be lucky than good. But over the long haul, I think skill is a much bigger factor than luck.
It's a lot like backgammon. Newbies think that because there are dice involved, luck is a much bigger factor than it really is. They always get beat and blame the dice. They don't realize that what a good player does is set up the board so almost any roll of the dice will help them, and seem lucky.
A lot of these final table get the same pros, over and over again.
Luck is a factor, and in a race, as they say, I'd rather be lucky than good. But over the long haul, I think skill is a much bigger factor than luck.
It's a lot like backgammon. Newbies think that because there are dice involved, luck is a much bigger factor than it really is. They always get beat and blame the dice. They don't realize that what a good player does is set up the board so almost any roll of the dice will help them, and seem lucky.
I think at the multi-table tourneys, NOBODY makes the final table without being lucky along the way. (speaking from experience and observation here). That said, it's really about avoiding mistakes and pressing +EV edges along the way. Those who are better at that, and better at adjusting to table conditions, do better at poker OVER THE LONG HAUL.
You are absolutely right that "over the long haul . . . skill is a much bigger factor than luck."
You are absolutely right that "over the long haul . . . skill is a much bigger factor than luck."
I once caught a straight flush on the river to beat quads.
Was it you? Pokerroom.com. The quads were 7s.
Did anyone see the horrible suckouts on the WPT recently. Season 3, Bay 101 Shooting Stars of Poker?
Danny Nguyen caught everything. JJ against QQ, and he makes a set on the turn, and quads on the river.
Then later, he was all-in with A7 against A K, and again, 7 on the turn and 7 on the river.
There were a lot of others as well. Never saw a final table quite like it.
I know that this seems to go against what I was saying about luck and skill earlier, but I stand by that. Luck is there, but skill is a bigger part of the game.
More to the point... At the final table, often luck plays a bigger part than earlier in the tourney. But it takes skill to get that far. Watching on TV we tend to see a lot more of the luck than the skill, but that's good television, not always a true representation of reality.
2 of the biggest reasons:
1) The range of skill levels is greatest at the beginning, where you have pople who have no idea what they are doing at the same tables with guys who are sharks. As the tournement progresses, the skill level tend to "homogenize". The more the skill levels are the same, the more luck affects who the winner is.
2) At the final table, you get less players. Less players, bigger blinds, more chance luck beats skill.
1) The range of skill levels is greatest at the beginning, where you have pople who have no idea what they are doing at the same tables with guys who are sharks. As the tournement progresses, the skill level tend to "homogenize". The more the skill levels are the same, the more luck affects who the winner is.
2) At the final table, you get less players. Less players, bigger blinds, more chance luck beats skill.
Remember near the end of the recent million dollar winner-take-all tournament (the one eventually won by Annie Duke) when Phil had a 5% chance of winning and caught the 10 on the river? His comment: "what a ten" with no apologies. Had that happened to him, he would have gone ballistic. Annie proceeded to play the pants off him when they went one-on-one for all the marbles.
That was phenomenal. I loved watching him rant and rave non-stop at the end. My favorite moment was when Annie took some huge pot. She got him to fold although she had him beat. Then she showed 1 card that implied to him that he had the better hand. She totally screwed with his head. He never got over it.