My picks to follow end of the week.
I took a deep dive into the race and came away with the opinion that 12 horses can win this race. I'll try to segment my top contenders:
Rain is expected on Friday with a 25% chance for rain on Saturday. It's critical to know if there are any racetrack trends or biases in play.
So here goes - my selections in order of preference.
Top Five:
05)TAPIT TRICE - very sharp often winning colt. His Blue Grass win stamps him as a key contender. Luis Saez is an incredible jockey.
02)VERIFYING - has the speed to be forwardly placed and has top connections.
14)ANGEL OF EMPIRE - Yet another Brad Cox runner who blew away the field in the Ark. Derby. His late pace figures are the best in the field. With Prat in the irons, I'm confident that he'll get a good trip.
09)SKINNER - My late closing longshot, needs a trip and a contentious pace. Can we have a repeat year when an AE scratches in and wins?
15)FORTE - The obvious favorite, two year old champ will be facing his biggest test of his life. He's a really good horse, yet I don't see much separation in his figures from the top contender
Next Five:
03)TWO PHIL’S - The WILDCARD in the race, will he transfer the big fig from TP to CD? I don't see why not.
06)KINGSBARNS - Undefeated colt has the speed, top connections and interesting Beyer progressions. He will have to prove he's fast enough.
10)PRACTICAL MOVE - Hard to gauge how strong the California races are, however his versatile running style and sharp form gives him a good chance to win.
17)DERMA SOTOGAKE - Ultra impressive in the UAE Derby, but will need racing luck to win from this post. Another WILDCARD. Will probably be OVERBET though the Japanese have been winning elite races across the globe. Can they shock here? Maybe.
04)CONFIDENCE GAME - I'm a big fan of trainer Keith Desormeaux, but his Rebel win may have been aided by the mud and a very contentious pace. I would prefer that brother Kent was riding than James Graham.
Not without a chance:
07)REINCARNATE - Has had troubled trips in both the Rebel and Ark Derby at Oaklawn. Expect Johnny V. to give him a better journey. Has the ability to be on the lead or stalk the pace.
08)MAGE - Raced giant in the Florida Derby making a huge move on the turn gaining the lead in the stretch only to tire late. I question whether he can get the distance.
Others:
18)ROCKET CAN - Not sure he's good enough and the outside post doesn't help. Maybe use for fourth in the super.
01)HIT SHOW - A good second in the Wood, however I'm skeptical of the quality of that race. Another Brad Cox trainee.
Extreme Longshots:
11)DISARM
12)JACE’S ROAD
13)SUN THUNDER
16)RAISE CAIN
18)ROCKET CAN
19)LORD MILES
20)COUNTINUAR