2023 Kentucky Derby

Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#1
#1
Four key prep races today for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, which is on May 6th. While there have been numerous prep races before today where horses earn points toward qualifying for the derby, there have been no standouts. Today at Gulfstream Park, Forte makes his three year old debut in the Fountain of Youth stakes in his quest for the roses. Forte won the two year old breeder's cup and was the eclipse award winner for best two year old.

Forte will be a deserving odds-on favorite in the Fountain of Youth, however I'm going to bet a second time starter, Mage, who was a speedy winner when breaking his maiden at seven furlongs on Pegasus day in late January. Though he didn't break from the gate that well, once settled, immediately went to the lead and won in dominant fashion. Gulfstream Park's dirt course usually favors horses on or near the lead and it appears that Mage will get the lead easily assuming he shows the same early fractions he did in his maiden breaker. It's quite the task for a second time starter to race in a Grade II stakes race, but given the connections are Gulfstream based, have confidence in a big effort today. I'm hoping he can control the pace and hold on the final furlong of the one mile/one turn affair

Additionally, the Gotham at Aqueduct, San Felipe at Santa Anita and Battaglia at Turfway Park offer qualifying points and look to be competitive affairs.
 
NINE-LIVES

NINE-LIVES

#2
#2
Excitable Boy said:
Four key prep races today for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, which is on May 6th. While there have been numerous prep races before today where horses earn points toward qualifying for the derby, there have been no standouts. Today at Gulfstream Park, Forte makes his three year old debut in the Fountain of Youth stakes in his quest for the roses. Forte won the two year old breeder's cup and was the eclipse award winner for best two year old.

Forte will be a deserving odds-on favorite in the Fountain of Youth, however I'm going to bet a second time starter, Mage, who was a speedy winner when breaking his maiden at seven furlongs on Pegasus day in late January. Though he didn't break from the gate that well, once settled, immediately went to the lead and won in dominant fashion. Gulfstream Park's dirt course usually favors horses on or near the lead and it appears that Mage will get the lead easily assuming he shows the same early fractions he did in his maiden breaker. It's quite the task for a second time starter to race in a Grade II stakes race, but given the connections are Gulfstream based, have confidence in a big effort today. I'm hoping he can control the pace and hold on the final furlong of the one mile/one turn affair

Additionally, the Gotham at Aqueduct, San Felipe at Santa Anita and Battaglia at Turfway Park offer qualifying points and look to be competitive affairs.
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I got 3,4,5,10 Exacta in Gotham and put 100 on the 14. I know the 14 is coming out of Parx, but 4 for 4 and a solid Beyer last time out.
Capping the FOY after the Gotham.......
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#4
#4
Well Forte certainly got the perfect setup, but did look terrific winning easily. Great prep - I guess one more start before the derby. I have to say Pletcher has been winning a lot of big races over the past year or so.

Mage never close to the lead with another awkward break. Not one of my better wagers.

The race in NY was a mess with the loose horse and sealed track. I bet #10 Lugan Knight who was awful. I did use the 3 and 14 as well.
 
NINE-LIVES

NINE-LIVES

#5
#5
Excitable Boy said:
Well Forte certainly got the perfect setup, but did look terrific winning easily. Great prep - I guess one more start before the derby. I have to say Pletcher has been winning a lot of big races over the past year or so.

Mage never close to the lead with another awkward break. Not one of my better wagers.

The race in NY was a mess with the loose horse and sealed track. I bet #10 Lugan Knight who was awful. I did use the 3 and 14 as well.
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Forte was a beast!
Looks really good, and did it 4-5 wide.

Not sure where they would point him too for next race. Wood or the Blue Grass?
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#6
#6
NINE-LIVES said:
Forte was a beast!
Looks really good, and did it 4-5 wide.

Not sure where they would point him too for next race. Wood or the Blue Grass?
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Yes, I believe it would be one of the two races. If I knew where he was stabled, could offer a better guess. It's possible they go straight to Kentucky without another start. But the Blue Grass at Keeneland makes a little more sense to me.
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#9
#9
NINE-LIVES said:
You don't think its too soon after the FOY?
I know they run 2 and 3 weeks apart in triple crown, but no thought of keeping him fresh?
He is best I have seen so far in the 3 year old crop
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The Florida Derby is four weeks after the FOY so unless there is an issue, 28 days is perfect spacing. Usually a horse will have a workout 2-3 weeks after a start. The colt is probably based in Florida.

As for going straight to the Derby of his FOY romp, you can always make that case, though they often say that third start off a layoff is a horse’s prime race which would be the derby. I have seen that angle work many times, especially if a horse has a subpar second start Off a layoff.

I just went on The Paulick Report and an article suggests that Forte‘s next start is likely the Florida Derby. (from Pletcher)

I’m surprised we have yet to see Cave Rock this year, not that I’m a fan but he is a very fast colt.

The Tampa Bay Derby is this weekend. Pletcher has a colt, Tapit Trice, who is 8-5 morning line. He was pretty impressive in his last start at GP. In the field is a colt named Groveland. I bet this horse at big odds in his last start and he ran a super game race. Not sure of the quality of the field in his last, but he looked like he was done on the turn yet fought on gamely through the stretch for second. If you get the chance, watch his replay in the SF Davis at Tampa. The pp’s are up. Really good card at Tampa on Saturday.
 
NINE-LIVES

NINE-LIVES

#11
#11
I haven't really hard capped the derby yet, but quick glance and I am loving Kingsbarn. Louisiana Derby win was impressive.
Also like Tapit Trice, closer type that has the legs to grind it out. Have some interest in Verifying and the Japanese Horse Derma Sotogake.

I think Forte is cooked from Florida Derby, that race looked draining.

Interested to hear some of your opinions.
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#12
#12
All valid points. I have a lot of interest in Derma Sotogake as well, depending upon post draw.

Forte will be fine. Will improve off his second start off the bench. Personally, I don’t think Pletcher had him fully cranked in the Florida Derby since he had enough KD points. Still, post draw is critical for him. He‘s without a doubt the horse to beat.

This is one of the more evenly matched fields in quite some time.

I’m hoping that Skinner can draw in from the 22nd point slot.
 
NINE-LIVES

NINE-LIVES

#14
#14
Excitable Boy said:
Tragedy at Churchill today as derby contender, Wild on Ice, had to be put down suffering an injury after a five furlong breeze.
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Crazy how you wanted Skinner in, and thats the horse replacing WOI. You gotta bet Skinner BIG in respect to WOI.
Was there any footage of WOI breaking down, the colt hit a bad spot on the dirt to just shattered the hind leg?
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#15
#15
NINE-LIVES said:
Crazy how you wanted Skinner in, and thats the horse replacing WOI. You gotta bet Skinner BIG in respect to WOI.
Was there any footage of WOI breaking down, the colt hit a bad spot on the dirt to just shattered the hind leg?
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No footage. The colt walked into the van after the workout on his own power. It was determined at the hospital the serous of the injury.

As for Skinner, he hasn’t had the best of trips in his last two at Santa Anita. I am confident that he’s better than a majority of the field. I hope he draws well.
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#18
#18
NINE-LIVES said:
Has improved in each of last 3 starts if you go by Beyer Figs.
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He’s been good, especially his last race in the SA Derby enduring a wide trip and being right there on the wire late. Plus he’s by Curlin, so the distance won’t be an issue. His trainer John Shirreffs, trained 2005 derby winner Giacomo and the great mare Zenyatta.

Interesting jockey change from Victor Espinoza to Juan Hernandez. If you follow California racing, you know how good he is. I tell you what, if he gets a trip( a big if) he could come rolling down the stretch to win. I’m not yet sold if he is as good as Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire or Kingsbarns but he will be on my tickets underneath.

The draw is slated for Monday at 2:00 pm.
 
NINE-LIVES

NINE-LIVES

#19
#19
Excitable Boy said:
He’s been good, especially his last race in the SA Derby enduring a wide trip and being right there on the wire late. Plus he’s by Curlin, so the distance won’t be an issue. His trainer John Shirreffs, trained 2005 derby winner Giacomo and the great mare Zenyatta.

Interesting jockey change from Victor Espinoza to Juan Hernandez. If you follow California racing, you know how good he is. I tell you what, if he gets a trip( a big if) he could come rolling down the stretch to win. I’m not yet sold if he is as good as Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire or Kingsbarns but he will be on my tickets underneath.

The draw is slated for Monday at 2:00 pm.
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I will place some homey on him for sure and have him in my exotics. I am punting Forte entirely, even with a good draw.
 
Excitable Boy

Excitable Boy

#20
#20
1)HIT SHOW
2)VERIFYING
3)TWO PHIL’S
4)CONFIDENCE GAME
5)TAPIT TRICE
6)KINGSBARNS
7)REINCARNATE
8)MAGE
9)SKINNER
10)PRACTICAL MOVE
11)DISARM
12)JACE’S ROAD
13)SUN THUNDER
14)ANGEL OF VAMPIRE
15)FORTE
16)RAISE CAIN
17)DERMA SOTOGAKE
18)ROCKET CAN
19)LORD MILES
20)COUNTINUAR
 
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