2023 Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter Excitable Boy
- Start date
I took a deep dive into the race and came away with the opinion that 12 horses can win this race. I'll try to segment my top contenders:
Rain is expected on Friday with a 25% chance for rain on Saturday. It's critical to know if there are any racetrack trends or biases in play.
So here goes - my selections in order of preference.
Top Five:
05)TAPIT TRICE - very sharp often winning colt. His Blue Grass win stamps him as a key contender. Luis Saez is an incredible jockey.
02)VERIFYING - has the speed to be forwardly placed and has top connections.
14)ANGEL OF EMPIRE - Yet another Brad Cox runner who blew away the field in the Ark. Derby. His late pace figures are the best in the field. With Prat in the irons, I'm confident that he'll get a good trip.
09)SKINNER - My late closing longshot, needs a trip and a contentious pace. Can we have a repeat year when an AE scratches in and wins?
15)FORTE - The obvious favorite, two year old champ will be facing his biggest test of his life. He's a really good horse, yet I don't see much separation in his figures from the top contender
Next Five:
03)TWO PHIL’S - The WILDCARD in the race, will he transfer the big fig from TP to CD? I don't see why not.
06)KINGSBARNS - Undefeated colt has the speed, top connections and interesting Beyer progressions. He will have to prove he's fast enough.
10)PRACTICAL MOVE - Hard to gauge how strong the California races are, however his versatile running style and sharp form gives him a good chance to win.
17)DERMA SOTOGAKE - Ultra impressive in the UAE Derby, but will need racing luck to win from this post. Another WILDCARD. Will probably be OVERBET though the Japanese have been winning elite races across the globe. Can they shock here? Maybe.
04)CONFIDENCE GAME - I'm a big fan of trainer Keith Desormeaux, but his Rebel win may have been aided by the mud and a very contentious pace. I would prefer that brother Kent was riding than James Graham.
Not without a chance:
07)REINCARNATE - Has had troubled trips in both the Rebel and Ark Derby at Oaklawn. Expect Johnny V. to give him a better journey. Has the ability to be on the lead or stalk the pace.
08)MAGE - Raced giant in the Florida Derby making a huge move on the turn gaining the lead in the stretch only to tire late. I question whether he can get the distance.
Others:
18)ROCKET CAN - Not sure he's good enough and the outside post doesn't help. Maybe use for fourth in the super.
01)HIT SHOW - A good second in the Wood, however I'm skeptical of the quality of that race. Another Brad Cox trainee.
Extreme Longshots:
11)DISARM
12)JACE’S ROAD
13)SUN THUNDER
16)RAISE CAIN
18)ROCKET CAN
19)LORD MILES
20)COUNTINUAR
Rain is expected on Friday with a 25% chance for rain on Saturday. It's critical to know if there are any racetrack trends or biases in play.
So here goes - my selections in order of preference.
Top Five:
05)TAPIT TRICE - very sharp often winning colt. His Blue Grass win stamps him as a key contender. Luis Saez is an incredible jockey.
02)VERIFYING - has the speed to be forwardly placed and has top connections.
14)ANGEL OF EMPIRE - Yet another Brad Cox runner who blew away the field in the Ark. Derby. His late pace figures are the best in the field. With Prat in the irons, I'm confident that he'll get a good trip.
09)SKINNER - My late closing longshot, needs a trip and a contentious pace. Can we have a repeat year when an AE scratches in and wins?
15)FORTE - The obvious favorite, two year old champ will be facing his biggest test of his life. He's a really good horse, yet I don't see much separation in his figures from the top contender
Next Five:
03)TWO PHIL’S - The WILDCARD in the race, will he transfer the big fig from TP to CD? I don't see why not.
06)KINGSBARNS - Undefeated colt has the speed, top connections and interesting Beyer progressions. He will have to prove he's fast enough.
10)PRACTICAL MOVE - Hard to gauge how strong the California races are, however his versatile running style and sharp form gives him a good chance to win.
17)DERMA SOTOGAKE - Ultra impressive in the UAE Derby, but will need racing luck to win from this post. Another WILDCARD. Will probably be OVERBET though the Japanese have been winning elite races across the globe. Can they shock here? Maybe.
04)CONFIDENCE GAME - I'm a big fan of trainer Keith Desormeaux, but his Rebel win may have been aided by the mud and a very contentious pace. I would prefer that brother Kent was riding than James Graham.
Not without a chance:
07)REINCARNATE - Has had troubled trips in both the Rebel and Ark Derby at Oaklawn. Expect Johnny V. to give him a better journey. Has the ability to be on the lead or stalk the pace.
08)MAGE - Raced giant in the Florida Derby making a huge move on the turn gaining the lead in the stretch only to tire late. I question whether he can get the distance.
Others:
18)ROCKET CAN - Not sure he's good enough and the outside post doesn't help. Maybe use for fourth in the super.
01)HIT SHOW - A good second in the Wood, however I'm skeptical of the quality of that race. Another Brad Cox trainee.
Extreme Longshots:
11)DISARM
12)JACE’S ROAD
13)SUN THUNDER
16)RAISE CAIN
18)ROCKET CAN
19)LORD MILES
20)COUNTINUAR
We are on the same page with a lot of the horses, I did some capping this morning and I came away with 9 horses that could win the race.
Long Shots I like: Hit Show, Sun Thunder, Confidence Game, and Skinner.
I like Tapit Tricer, Practical Move, Angel of Empire, and LOVE Kingsbarn. He blew away that field in Louisiana Derby impressively.
I will put some money on Derma Sotogake only because Japanese trainers have been winning big the last few months.
I am on the fence with Verifying and WILL NOT bet Forte in almost all of my exotics. I don't see it after his last race, it was a HUGE effort.
Lets hope all the jocks and ponies have safe trips and we win some big money!
Long Shots I like: Hit Show, Sun Thunder, Confidence Game, and Skinner.
I like Tapit Tricer, Practical Move, Angel of Empire, and LOVE Kingsbarn. He blew away that field in Louisiana Derby impressively.
I will put some money on Derma Sotogake only because Japanese trainers have been winning big the last few months.
I am on the fence with Verifying and WILL NOT bet Forte in almost all of my exotics. I don't see it after his last race, it was a HUGE effort.
Lets hope all the jocks and ponies have safe trips and we win some big money!
Quite a few scratches, with three AE’s now in the field.
Lord Miles out - due to the trainer’s recent suspension.
Practical Move out - due to sickness.
Continuar out- trainer scratch
Added to field:
#21 - Cyclone Mischief
#22 - Mandarin Hero ( a legitimate contender off his second in the SA Derby - post may be a problem)
#23 - King Russell
Lord Miles out - due to the trainer’s recent suspension.
Practical Move out - due to sickness.
Continuar out- trainer scratch
Added to field:
#21 - Cyclone Mischief
#22 - Mandarin Hero ( a legitimate contender off his second in the SA Derby - post may be a problem)
#23 - King Russell
I think the field of 19 is set. With these late scratches, horses who originally drew 11 and higher move in a few spots, which has to help their chances, it certainly doesn’t hurt.
With Skinner out, I’m having a difficult time formulating a betting strategy. I’m now leading toward Angel of Empire to win, assuming he remains the third choice though he is the favorite in the Oaks/Derby double. I have mixed feelings regarding Derma Sotogake, but will use defensively.
Santin is my best bet of the day in the Turf Classic, the race before the derby. Brendan Walsh has been sending out very live runners all week, including the Oaks winner. Santin is 2 for 2 over the Churchill turf. I like Wolfie’s Dynaghost to complete the exacta.
With Skinner out, I’m having a difficult time formulating a betting strategy. I’m now leading toward Angel of Empire to win, assuming he remains the third choice though he is the favorite in the Oaks/Derby double. I have mixed feelings regarding Derma Sotogake, but will use defensively.
Santin is my best bet of the day in the Turf Classic, the race before the derby. Brendan Walsh has been sending out very live runners all week, including the Oaks winner. Santin is 2 for 2 over the Churchill turf. I like Wolfie’s Dynaghost to complete the exacta.
I will add that I am having a difficult time determining where the early pace will come from. Though there are plenty of horses that have the ability to be forwardly placed, there is no clear cut speed horse that you can assume will be on the lead and certainly little chance for the insane early pace of last year. My hope is that the Brad Cox charge, Jace's Road, is sent on a mission to ensure a fast pace which would benefit his stablemates Angel of Empire, Verifying, and Hit Show.
For sure, after the scratch of Skinner, I had a hard time really liking anyone.
Ironically, I loved Mage in the Fountain of Youth which was the first post of this thread. I made a small bet on him in the Florida Derby, but as good as he was in that race, doubted he would get the mile and a quarter.
The way the race was run, I believe that Skinner would have been no worse than second. Oh, well. On to Pimlico!
Ironically, I loved Mage in the Fountain of Youth which was the first post of this thread. I made a small bet on him in the Florida Derby, but as good as he was in that race, doubted he would get the mile and a quarter.
The way the race was run, I believe that Skinner would have been no worse than second. Oh, well. On to Pimlico!
This is a weak field, Mage should win looking at the other horses he's running against.
National Treasure doesn't excite me at 4-1, wonder if thats more Baffert money. Nice speed figs but doesn't win.
If I had to bet against Mage, which I will, I would go 5,6,7,8 - and Hope Perform or Red Route One get up top.
I will throw a few bucks on Chase The Chaos in hopes of an upset.
This is not a good betting race in terms of returns.
National Treasure doesn't excite me at 4-1, wonder if thats more Baffert money. Nice speed figs but doesn't win.
If I had to bet against Mage, which I will, I would go 5,6,7,8 - and Hope Perform or Red Route One get up top.
I will throw a few bucks on Chase The Chaos in hopes of an upset.
This is not a good betting race in terms of returns.
I have two horses that I'm going to key with the hope that the two weeks between starts is to the detriment of Mage. 1 - Blazing Sevens trained by Chad Brown. Brown has had a lot of success pointing at Pimlico the past few years. Third off the layoff, improving Beyer figs and a decent third in the Bluegrass. 2 - Perform trained by Shug McGaughey, that last race was too good not to use him. He was finishing like a wild horse when finally clear. He may be light on the figs, but the price will be right. He may be developing as he broke his maiden before the Tessio win. Very interesting.
First Mission should be the second choice in the wagering for Brad Cox. Another lightly raced colt coming off a solid win in the Lexington stakes at Keeneland. This will be only his fourth lifetime start, but I think he's a major contender.
I could use Red Route One underneath, but not on top. I'm against National Treasure though he can be third, I guess.
First Mission should be the second choice in the wagering for Brad Cox. Another lightly raced colt coming off a solid win in the Lexington stakes at Keeneland. This will be only his fourth lifetime start, but I think he's a major contender.
I could use Red Route One underneath, but not on top. I'm against National Treasure though he can be third, I guess.
I hate Baffert, I always bet against him. Cheating douche bag.
I am going to throw a few bucks on Coffee With Chris and Chase The Chaos, although both have AWFUL speed figures and don't belong in a harness race at the Meadowlands.
Its just such a weak field. Mage should win. I like Blazing Sevens, but he will get bet down to 3-1 because of the Chad Brown affect. 3-1 doesn't excite me. Very bland Preakness.
I am going to throw a few bucks on Coffee With Chris and Chase The Chaos, although both have AWFUL speed figures and don't belong in a harness race at the Meadowlands.
Its just such a weak field. Mage should win. I like Blazing Sevens, but he will get bet down to 3-1 because of the Chad Brown affect. 3-1 doesn't excite me. Very bland Preakness.
Hate Baffert. Should have been banned years ago. Lying c-sucker.
Don’t you think the Cox horse will be second choice? My guess is that Blazing Sevens will be 5-1. I bet Blazing Sevens lass summer in the slop and he was terrible. Of course, his next start was again in the mud and he jogged without me. LOL
There isn’t much early pace here. Will Coffee With Chris air it out? I can see Saez sending First Mission to the front. The Preakness usually favors speed
Mage should win but the quick turnaround and short price makes him vulnerable for me. He clearly benefitted from a hot pace in the derby. Too bad that Two Phils isn’t in the field. I thought he was terrific in the derby.
Don’t you think the Cox horse will be second choice? My guess is that Blazing Sevens will be 5-1. I bet Blazing Sevens lass summer in the slop and he was terrible. Of course, his next start was again in the mud and he jogged without me. LOL
There isn’t much early pace here. Will Coffee With Chris air it out? I can see Saez sending First Mission to the front. The Preakness usually favors speed
Mage should win but the quick turnaround and short price makes him vulnerable for me. He clearly benefitted from a hot pace in the derby. Too bad that Two Phils isn’t in the field. I thought he was terrific in the derby.
I can see Coffee With Chris on the lead but he will get passed on the far turn.
I've seen Chase The Chaos at Golden Gate and cashed a ticket on him when he won the stakes race that qualified him for the Preakness. He's a deep closer without an ounce of early pace.
It wouldn't shock me if Mage was on the lead. I know he broke slowly in his last three starts, but when he broke his maiden impressively, he went right to the front.
I'm using Perform in tri's and a win wager. If the three favorites hit the board, the payoffs will be terrible. (and a very logical outcome)
I've seen Chase The Chaos at Golden Gate and cashed a ticket on him when he won the stakes race that qualified him for the Preakness. He's a deep closer without an ounce of early pace.
It wouldn't shock me if Mage was on the lead. I know he broke slowly in his last three starts, but when he broke his maiden impressively, he went right to the front.
I'm using Perform in tri's and a win wager. If the three favorites hit the board, the payoffs will be terrible. (and a very logical outcome)