TS Henri (Not Transexual) DO You Believe The Forecast Hype??
- Thread starter NINE-LIVES
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Weather and local news will play up the hype on any event like this to keep you scared and glued to the TV so they can run ads and make their nut. People don't realize most networks/stations overestimate their viewing to maximize $$$ and then when they fall short they need to 'create' viewers to make it up later.
That said, this could be pretty bad. The combination of full moon and the potential (though not likely) arrival during FM high tide would make for a bad situation. NYC would likely be spared (based on current projections, NYC isn't likely to get to badly hit) and just get a lot of rain and wind.
LI could get pretty well smacked around from around Babylon and eastward. If you're near water, especially contained bodies like the Great South Bay, you may want to take precautions.
Personally, my experience with these things is they are never as bad as advertised. But I'm west of LI. Gloria was a bust - I remember watching Manhattan at the height of it and thinking "what a waste of a storm". I have stayed through 3 hurricanes on the Outer Banks - all were nowhere near as bad as advertised.
That said, there were 3 in the last 40 years that WERE bad. Agnes was horrendous. I remember it well. It was so bad, we saw coffins floating down a street from a cemetery that had gotten oversoaked, ground loosened, etc. That was in PA, not NY or NJ. Irene was really bad - mainly because my region simply didn't prepare. Lost power for 3 days, but we were prepared. Down in the flood zone,where the rivers and overflow areas were, homes were literally destroyed. Massive damage.
Sandy, not as bad as Irene. It was really bad, though. No power for 4 days, some flooding (they'd managed to fix a lot of the problems caused by Irene in the flood zone), but it was mostly trees blocking streets and lack of gasoline to go out and get what you need. We had our fireplace going fulltime since there was no heat and it was DAMN cold. Used up all our firewood and I had to get another cord.
I don't think this will be as bad as any of those, unless you're east of Babylon. I'd be really well prepared if I lived out there.
Meanwhile, I'm still preparing even here. Not too crazy, but good to have ice, batteries, flashlights, and food that can last. All those things are good to have anyway, and most last for a while.
That said, this could be pretty bad. The combination of full moon and the potential (though not likely) arrival during FM high tide would make for a bad situation. NYC would likely be spared (based on current projections, NYC isn't likely to get to badly hit) and just get a lot of rain and wind.
LI could get pretty well smacked around from around Babylon and eastward. If you're near water, especially contained bodies like the Great South Bay, you may want to take precautions.
Personally, my experience with these things is they are never as bad as advertised. But I'm west of LI. Gloria was a bust - I remember watching Manhattan at the height of it and thinking "what a waste of a storm". I have stayed through 3 hurricanes on the Outer Banks - all were nowhere near as bad as advertised.
That said, there were 3 in the last 40 years that WERE bad. Agnes was horrendous. I remember it well. It was so bad, we saw coffins floating down a street from a cemetery that had gotten oversoaked, ground loosened, etc. That was in PA, not NY or NJ. Irene was really bad - mainly because my region simply didn't prepare. Lost power for 3 days, but we were prepared. Down in the flood zone,where the rivers and overflow areas were, homes were literally destroyed. Massive damage.
Sandy, not as bad as Irene. It was really bad, though. No power for 4 days, some flooding (they'd managed to fix a lot of the problems caused by Irene in the flood zone), but it was mostly trees blocking streets and lack of gasoline to go out and get what you need. We had our fireplace going fulltime since there was no heat and it was DAMN cold. Used up all our firewood and I had to get another cord.
I don't think this will be as bad as any of those, unless you're east of Babylon. I'd be really well prepared if I lived out there.
Meanwhile, I'm still preparing even here. Not too crazy, but good to have ice, batteries, flashlights, and food that can last. All those things are good to have anyway, and most last for a while.
I am all prepped for the storm.
Got milk, bread and eggs (every one makes french toast during a storm)
Got gas for the car and generator
Then went out and mongered.
Got milk, bread and eggs (every one makes french toast during a storm)
Got gas for the car and generator
Then went out and mongered.
Gotta laugh at the lunatics who run to the supermarket, overload their carts with non essentials thinking they world is coming to an end…
You never know with these storms. I am on the south shore 100 yards from the bay but in a neighborhood that was built up high. We never had water EVER ... even in the streets. Then during Irene the water came up through the storm drains maybe half an inch at the curb. People were amazed at that was the first time we ever had water in our streets from the bay. I never even imagined flooding ever happening in my neighborhood. Then Sandy came. The Great South Bay was halfway up my front lawn. two or three feet deep in the street. I would have been fine except for water coming up from my basement floor. Got 1.5 feet in my basement. NOW ... every time we get a storm warning I get panicked. Better safe than sorry I guess. SInce Sandy - I got a huge on demand generator and multiple pumps. I am ready.
I drove up to BJS gas around 8 am yesterday (Sat). Only 1 car ahead of me on line for gas and may maybe 10 peolpe were on line waiting for store to open (opens at 8am). I was there just to fill my jerry can and filled up car even though had half tank (it's good idea when humidity is 100% not to let tank go below half).
When I went to the gym later and got out at 11am car line to BJS was solid up Daniel St and left turn lane on Rt110 was solid almost back to Price pky (Lowes turnoff) for a total of about 1/2 mile of solid cars. I never saw that before.
It's bad when the news makes such a big deal (almost hysterical hype) about a storm that is just barely a hurricane (as of 8am today it has been downgraded to a tropical storm with center midway between Montauk and Block Island). The news loses (whatever is left of) its credibility and when the big one comes people may not take it seriously.
Ps. Most of the people filling gas cans I saw (like me I assume for generators ) had large plastic gas containers. I don't understand why anyone would have a multi-gallon plastic gas containers that they load into the back of their cars; my neighbor has two one and he stores it in his attached garage. I store my gas in a welded seams steel military gerry can and when the storm has passed will dump the gas into my cars. But then again I'm a "belt and suspenders" kinda guy; I wear suspenders in case my belt holding up my pants fails.
When I went to the gym later and got out at 11am car line to BJS was solid up Daniel St and left turn lane on Rt110 was solid almost back to Price pky (Lowes turnoff) for a total of about 1/2 mile of solid cars. I never saw that before.
It's bad when the news makes such a big deal (almost hysterical hype) about a storm that is just barely a hurricane (as of 8am today it has been downgraded to a tropical storm with center midway between Montauk and Block Island). The news loses (whatever is left of) its credibility and when the big one comes people may not take it seriously.
Ps. Most of the people filling gas cans I saw (like me I assume for generators ) had large plastic gas containers. I don't understand why anyone would have a multi-gallon plastic gas containers that they load into the back of their cars; my neighbor has two one and he stores it in his attached garage. I store my gas in a welded seams steel military gerry can and when the storm has passed will dump the gas into my cars. But then again I'm a "belt and suspenders" kinda guy; I wear suspenders in case my belt holding up my pants fails.
Your third paragraph is 100%.
People wonder where the term "fake news" comes from or what it means. To me, this is always what it means. But the commercialization of news requires this. If news outlets want to make money, they have to pump up impression estimates to increase cost per unit sale. If they can't meet that estimate, they have to make it up somehow. So you have to sensationalize SOMETHING to pump them up somehow. Storms and crises are the best options.
These run their course, naturally, and you find the next thing when you need it. But the loss of credibility isn't something they really care about. The anchors and reporters care least of all - they are all just talking heads spewing back BS anyway. As long as their pay packet is high enough and their face/name recognition is good enough, they're fine. Credibility isn't something they get too concerned with, usually.
The problem with tracking a hurricane is that it's not science. It's a short term estimate. They are usually good to track a decent course 1 day out. 3-4 days? Good luck. They'll play up the 1 or 2 times they got it right and ignore the 10 others they got wrong. I learned to read weather maps because I was doing pricing for a firm that had to focus on weather to make sure they priced inventory properly in various regions. You'll make as good a guess as most of them if you can read, and that's why (if you see my earlier post) I said the concern was Islip eastward, certainly not west.
As for prep, looks like I'm overprepared, but since I didn't go crazy it doesn't matter. After all, Henri is mostly missing LI now. Center of path is now over Block Island. The reason I felt this was likely yesterday was the maps indicated pressure systems pushing this east, not west. There are lots of factors that have to come into play to push a storm west, size is one, but the other is which systems are sitting to the west and what they are doing.
At the end of the day, it's not really as much a science as some claim. They claim it is, and lots of people go to school to study and become 'experts' at it. What they are really great at is explaining why what is happening, is happening. But predicting weather is different from predicting a big storm. It seems like the same thing, but it isn't. More factors = more complexity. Most standard, everyday, weather patterns are relatively predictable, but the ones that require news coverage, and make more people aware of, are messy.
A good book worth reading about the early days of this is "Isaac's Storm" about the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. "The Perfect Storm" does a relatively good job of updating why modern storms are so hard to predict, but it's really telling a sympathetic story of mismanagement and missing information. "Isaac's Storm" really gets into the details of the early days of hurricane/weather prediction.
People wonder where the term "fake news" comes from or what it means. To me, this is always what it means. But the commercialization of news requires this. If news outlets want to make money, they have to pump up impression estimates to increase cost per unit sale. If they can't meet that estimate, they have to make it up somehow. So you have to sensationalize SOMETHING to pump them up somehow. Storms and crises are the best options.
These run their course, naturally, and you find the next thing when you need it. But the loss of credibility isn't something they really care about. The anchors and reporters care least of all - they are all just talking heads spewing back BS anyway. As long as their pay packet is high enough and their face/name recognition is good enough, they're fine. Credibility isn't something they get too concerned with, usually.
The problem with tracking a hurricane is that it's not science. It's a short term estimate. They are usually good to track a decent course 1 day out. 3-4 days? Good luck. They'll play up the 1 or 2 times they got it right and ignore the 10 others they got wrong. I learned to read weather maps because I was doing pricing for a firm that had to focus on weather to make sure they priced inventory properly in various regions. You'll make as good a guess as most of them if you can read, and that's why (if you see my earlier post) I said the concern was Islip eastward, certainly not west.
As for prep, looks like I'm overprepared, but since I didn't go crazy it doesn't matter. After all, Henri is mostly missing LI now. Center of path is now over Block Island. The reason I felt this was likely yesterday was the maps indicated pressure systems pushing this east, not west. There are lots of factors that have to come into play to push a storm west, size is one, but the other is which systems are sitting to the west and what they are doing.
At the end of the day, it's not really as much a science as some claim. They claim it is, and lots of people go to school to study and become 'experts' at it. What they are really great at is explaining why what is happening, is happening. But predicting weather is different from predicting a big storm. It seems like the same thing, but it isn't. More factors = more complexity. Most standard, everyday, weather patterns are relatively predictable, but the ones that require news coverage, and make more people aware of, are messy.
A good book worth reading about the early days of this is "Isaac's Storm" about the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. "The Perfect Storm" does a relatively good job of updating why modern storms are so hard to predict, but it's really telling a sympathetic story of mismanagement and missing information. "Isaac's Storm" really gets into the details of the early days of hurricane/weather prediction.
I picked up a few items I normally pick up weekly at the Freeport BJ's mid afternoon.
The line for the cashiers reached all the way to the back of the store.
Why people still wait on line is beyond me. I scanned the few items I had with the app and proceeded unimpeded to the door where I was waved thru by the guy who sees me every week.
The gas line was insane. That gas area is poorly laid out and people clog the entrance by waiting for the first few pumps while the middle pumps are empty.
People aren't supposed to back in but do it anyway.
Fights erupt every so often.
Luckily I didn't need gas as I no longer commute.
The line for the cashiers reached all the way to the back of the store.
Why people still wait on line is beyond me. I scanned the few items I had with the app and proceeded unimpeded to the door where I was waved thru by the guy who sees me every week.
The gas line was insane. That gas area is poorly laid out and people clog the entrance by waiting for the first few pumps while the middle pumps are empty.
People aren't supposed to back in but do it anyway.
Fights erupt every so often.
Luckily I didn't need gas as I no longer commute.
This was a total dud, news made this out to be a direct hit on the Island. Instant stimulus for the local economy though, I guess that is a positive with so many businesses struggling. Isaias was worse than this, my trees haven't moved. Just an overhyped rain storm.
Better it rain all day then lose power for a week.
Better it rain all day then lose power for a week.
-Scanned a few items with the app?
Please explain- Does that mean you do not need to formally check out at the register?
- No gas , no commuting? does that mean you walk to all your monger encounters .. ? .. lol jk
Please explain- Does that mean you do not need to formally check out at the register?
- No gas , no commuting? does that mean you walk to all your monger encounters .. ? .. lol jk
As far as no gas no commuting, I only "commute" to flushing 2X a week, otherwise everything is local and I really don't care about gas prices (although I use BJs gas as it is on the same street as my gym.
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