Real Estate bubble?

"They are lemmings. It's just sometimes the lemming march off a cliff and sometimes they march into a field of strawberries." too funny

ive been seeing a lot of for rent signs for store fronts recently kinda curious how that is affecting RE prices.
 

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
Well, I can tell you in Manhattan, there's been UNBELIEVABLE turnover / going out of business / for rent signs in retail spaces for like the past 3 years and it hasn't affected prices...... yet.
 

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
I have to agree. Sales prices are not down 5% in Manhattan. If anything, maybe closed prices are showing an average of 5% off list.
What I'm seeing is asking prices have risen 5% and are 5% more negotiable. In other words, actual sales prices are flat. But what I am seeing is fewer "stupid" sales where someone buys something which "everyone" knows is overpriced, assuming that when it goes up in value they will get bailed out.
 
What I'm seeing is asking prices have risen 5% and are 5% more negotiable. In other words, actual sales prices are flat. But what I am seeing is fewer "stupid" sales where someone buys something which "everyone" knows is overpriced, assuming that when it goes up in value they will get bailed out.
Yeah pretty true...the one place where I think some people are overpaying is East Harlem. They think they're getting a deal just because they found a 400k one bedroom. It will be interesting to see what happens to that area once the Target/Best Buy opens near 116th Street.
 
Well, I can tell you in Manhattan, there's been UNBELIEVABLE turnover / going out of business / for rent signs in retail spaces for like the past 3 years and it hasn't affected prices...... yet.
I have not seen to much of that yet. If the stores vacate and new tenants take over then we know Manhattan is still alive.
 
How we know it is bad

I have noticed that some building has came to a stop in Manhattan. I could be wrong, but I feel the banks are not lending the developers more money to finish the project.

Commercial loans are usually given in three installments.

1) To buy the property and knock down
2) Build the foundation and frame
3) Complete the rest of the construction.

This is bull shit. The City let these developers buy Avenues of land in Manhattan. Knock down what were thriving business's, now to be replaced by wooden housing and scaffolding. Only G@d knows how long it will remain that way.
 
how is it the city's fault for people buying properties? its not the citys fault they decide to knock it down and build on top of it either.

are you talking about eminient domain?

i think alot of people are selling their development sites or properties since they dont want to take a risk at this point in time and are not following thru with the construction. but at the prices they are asking for now its not really worth taking on that risk either. im sure those guys are rich enough to sit on that tho unless they big loans out so who knows.
 

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
how is it the city's fault for people buying properties? its not the citys fault they decide to knock it down and build on top of it either.

are you talking about eminient domain?

i think alot of people are selling their development sites or properties since they dont want to take a risk at this point in time and are not following thru with the construction. but at the prices they are asking for now its not really worth taking on that risk either. im sure those guys are rich enough to sit on that tho unless they big loans out so who knows.

One thing which is at "fault" of many places where a lot of development is going on is that there is no accounting for infrastructure. The issue is always proferred that the new building will increase the Real Estate Tax rolls, but almost always those taxes go towards an operating budget (in a lot of places, it's the "School Tax"). But those are to some extent "usage fees" and go towards various usage oriented things even if not schools (police, fire dept, etc). Very few places have a one time fee to go towards a captial budget of adding the infrastucture needed to support the new additions (roads, sewage and sewage treatemnt, power grid, building new schools and buildings for PD, FD, etc.).
 
how is it the city's fault for people buying properties? its not the citys fault they decide to knock it down and build on top of it either.

are you talking about eminient domain?

i think alot of people are selling their development sites or properties since they dont want to take a risk at this point in time and are not following thru with the construction. but at the prices they are asking for now its not really worth taking on that risk either. im sure those guys are rich enough to sit on that tho unless they big loans out so who knows.
I am not talking about eminient domain.

New York City is a Great Landmark. I believe the City needs more Landmark Protection.
 
Ace - I am sure. Why should the Government of learned there lesson.
This is just the first mortgage company I checked. Last week I spoke to a friend of mine that is a loan officer for a competitor and they offer the same.

http://69.20.13.21/newnymc/programm/no-documentation.shtml

http://69.20.13.21/newnymc/programm/first-time.shtml

And not to start an argument, but not putting 20% down isn't the cause of the problem. In the past, if you didn't put 20% down, you were forced to pay PMI. The problem this time around is that borrowers are taking out interest only or 1-5 year ARM mortgages and gambling that their property would appreciate enough within five years that they could refinance into a more conventional mortgage. Since many properties are valued less than what they appraised for when they took out the loan, the borrower can't pull off a refinance.
 
I am not talking about eminient domain.

New York City is a Great Landmark. I believe the City needs more Landmark Protection.
One of the things that enabled New York City to become great (indeed, the de facto world capital) was a near-total lack of sentimentality towards its landscape and the structures built upon it.
 

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
This is just the first mortgage company I checked. Last week I spoke to a friend of mine that is a loan officer for a competitor and they offer the same.

http://69.20.13.21/newnymc/programm/no-documentation.shtml

http://69.20.13.21/newnymc/programm/first-time.shtml

And not to start an argument, but not putting 20% down isn't the cause of the problem. In the past, if you didn't put 20% down, you were forced to pay PMI. The problem this time around is that borrowers are taking out interest only or 1-5 year ARM mortgages and gambling that their property would appreciate enough within five years that they could refinance into a more conventional mortgage. Since many properties are valued less than what they appraised for when they took out the loan, the borrower can't pull off a refinance.
Although I never saw a direct quote, it's often been said that Greenspan encouraged people to take those loans with the rediculously low teaser rates.... so why wouldn't they? Besides, in the end... as usual... the US Taxpayer shoudlers the utlimate risk since so many mortgages are in the end backed by the US Gov't.

I also disagree that not putting 20% isn't the problem: historically you are correct that you could get 90% financing and pay PMI, BUT you couldn't get a no doc 90% loan, and you couldn't get more than 90%, unlike the OVER 100% FINANCING in a lot of sub prime loans.

Also, there is something very important that very few people realize about foreclosures/defaults* (which is the real problem. As long as the borrower is actually paying, none of this matters really). There is a psychological factor in "how much I have sunk into this place": Even if the property is "under water" (i.e. the amount of the loan is greater than the value), a lot of people will continue to pay, even if it means a big financial hardship, to hang onto their percieved "equity" (scare quotes because in reality, if the property is under water, there is no equity). If they haven't sunk much or any money into the place, they are MUCH more likely to walk away from it when things head even slightly south. This can be seen when people "cash out refi" and pull equity out. Example: a property is worth $500,000 in today's market. If someone bought it for $800,000 and put $250,00 down, having a $550,000 mortgage, they are much less likely to walk away from it than a person who bought the same property for $200,000 and cashed out for a refi of $525,000 (taking a "profit" of $325,000) even though the first owner is $25,000 more under water than the second.

* even bankers.
 

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
One of the things that enabled New York City to become great (indeed, the de facto world capital) was a near-total lack of sentimentality towards its landscape and the structures built upon it.

Not sure if I agree with this. To some extent, this would put the blame for NY's decline somewhat on the back of all the Landmarked Districts and individually Landmarked buildings. I also don't know if I think what's happened to 42nd street is making NY a "greater" city, but then there's all sorts of problems I have with the way Times Square redevelopment was handled altogether (see http://www.utopiaguide.com/forums/showthread.php?p=498776&highlight=square#post498776 )
 
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