Moore's Law

#1
Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder and Moore’s Law author, dies at 94.

Cofounder of Intel which developed the 1st microprocessor chip, the 4004 in early 1970's.
Although the capacities of this device is laughable by today's standards (2300 transistors vs today's latest with almost 7 Billion with a frequency of 750KHz vs today's 5.80 GHz — for ref a K is 1000 and a G is 1,000,000,000), it started a technology that has dramatically changed the world forever.

It's said that if the same advancement happened in the automotive industry, that you would buy a car for $1 plus another couple bucks for a nonrefillable 2 gal gasoline fuel tank, you could drive it at 200mph and you would put it out for the trash after 100,000 miles or when it got dirty (whichever came 1st).
 
#2
Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder and Moore’s Law author, dies at 94.

Cofounder of Intel which developed the 1st microprocessor chip, the 4004 in early 1970's.
Although the capacities of this device is laughable by today's standards (2300 transistors vs today's latest with almost 7 Billion with a frequency of 750KHz vs today's 5.80 GHz — for ref a K is 1000 and a G is 1,000,000,000), it started a technology that has dramatically changed the world forever.

It's said that if the same advancement happened in the automotive industry, that you would buy a car for $1 plus another couple bucks for a nonrefillable 2 gal gasoline fuel tank, you could drive it at 200mph and you would put it out for the trash after 100,000 miles or when it got dirty (whichever came 1st).
What will happen when his Law dies too?
 

billyS

Reign of Terror
#3
It's said that if the same advancement happened in the automotive industry, that you would buy a car for $1 plus another couple bucks for a nonrefillable 2 gal gasoline fuel tank, you could drive it at 200mph and you would put it out for the trash after 100,000 miles or when it got dirty (whichever came 1st).
I wish I could remember the exact quote, but I remember when the above or a similar claim was made by Gates, the retort from someone from Detroit was along the lines of "if the auto mobile industry followed the same path of advancement as the computer industry then every three or four years we'd have to rip up every road and highway to build new ones to accommodate the upgrade made in cars.
 
#5
What will happen when his Law dies too?
Moores Law isn't dead yet but to use an analogy, it definitely is in hospice.

The problem is that when the size of a transistor starts to approach that of several silicon atoms quantum limit effects come into play.

You may remember "Schrodinger's Cat" when due to quantum effects the cat can be both dead or alive at the same time.

Well the basic nature of current designs rely on binary logic, i.e., a binary state is either a "0" or a "1", and are approaching the quantum limits where they can be both at the same time.
 
#6
Moores Law isn't dead yet but to use an analogy, it definitely is in hospice.

The problem is that when the size of a transistor starts to approach that of several silicon atoms quantum limit effects come into play.

You may remember "Schrodinger's Cat" when due to quantum effects the cat can be both dead or alive at the same time.

Well the basic nature of current designs rely on binary logic, i.e., a binary state is either a "0" or a "1", and are approaching the quantum limits where they can be both at the same time.
Approaching the speed of light quickly and it can’t go faster. This will be interesting
 
#8
I wish I could remember the exact quote, but I remember when the above or a similar claim was made by Gates, the retort from someone from Detroit was along the lines of "if the auto mobile industry followed the same path of advancement as the computer industry then every three or four years we'd have to rip up every road and highway to build new ones to accommodate the upgrade made in cars.
LI Roads need resurfacing every 3-4 years so that would not be a major roadblock to rapid car tech advacement
 
#9
Approaching the speed of light quickly and it can’t go faster. This will be interesting
It has nothing to do about the speed of light.
In fact Einstein (kinda an expert in various theories about such) had some serious problems with the concept of quantum effects. In fact one of his famous quotes (perhaps infamous is a better word since quantum physics is well established thru both theory and experimental measurements) is that "God does not play dice".
 
#11
It has nothing to do about the speed of light.
In fact Einstein (kinda an expert in various theories about such) had some serious problems with the concept of quantum effects. In fact one of his famous quotes (perhaps infamous is a better word since quantum physics is well established thru both theory and experimental measurements) is that "God does not play dice".
Didn't Bohr tell Einstein to stop telling God what to do? I think Stephen Hawking said " god does play dice and throws them were they cannot be seen" or something like that. Not really the science type.
 
#12
I wish I could remember the exact quote, but I remember when the above or a similar claim was made by Gates, the retort from someone from Detroit was along the lines of "if the auto mobile industry followed the same path of advancement as the computer industry then every three or four years we'd have to rip up every road and highway to build new ones to accommodate the upgrade made in cars.
I think this is what you were looking for??


Bill Gates reportedly compared the computer industry with the auto industry, made the following statement at CODEX
If GM had kept up with the technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25.00 cars that got 1,000 miles to the gallon.

In response GM issued a press release (Mr. Jack Welch) stating:

If GM had developed technology like Microsoft, we would all be driving cars with the following characteristics:
  1. For no reason at all, your car would crash twice a day.
  2. Every time they repainted the lines on the road, you would have to buy a new car.
  3. Occasionally, executing a manoeuver such as a left-turn would cause your car to shut down and refuse to restart, and you would have to reinstall the engine.
  4. When your car died on the freeway for no reason, you would just accept this, restart and drive on.
  5. Only one person at a time could use the car, unless you bought 'Car95' or 'CarNT', and then added more seats.
  6. Apple would make a car powered by the sun, reliable, five times as fast, and twice as easy to drive, but would run on only five per cent of the roads.
  7. Oil, water temperature and alternator warning lights would be replaced by a single 'general car default' warning light.
  8. New seats would force every-one to have the same size butt.
  9. The airbag would say 'Are you sure?' before going off.
  10. Occasionally, for no reason, your car would lock you out and refuse to let you in until you simultaneously lifted the door handle, turned the key, and grabbed the radio antenna.
 
#13
It has nothing to do about the speed of light.
In fact Einstein (kinda an expert in various theories about such) had some serious problems with the concept of quantum effects. In fact one of his famous quotes (perhaps infamous is a better word since quantum physics is well established thru both theory and experimental measurements) is that "God does not play dice".
Speed of light in respect to transistor processing speed. This cannot be over come. As far as quantum processes or quibits haven’t become scalable at a profitable pricepoint
 
#16
Speed of light in respect to transistor processing speed. This cannot be over come. As far as quantum processes or quibits haven’t become scalable at a profitable pricepoint
IMHO (when I was involved in this stuff a while back was not a consideration) the vel C is a distance problem and not a clock speed problem.

By this I mean clock skewing because of unequal separation of components on the wafer and you can get around that by keeping the components tied to a clock equal distanced.

Also, vel C may get involved in the transport of electrons the distance from the emitter to the collector but I would think other factors (capacitance for one which gets larger as the distance between conductors get smaller.) would be limiting clock speed before you get to that point.

I haven't kept up with current (no pun intended) technology as I don't need to invest time that can be put to better uses e.g., mongering, financial stuff.
 
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