Money and Investing (formerly Pfizer Stock prices)

What’s the consensus on asset allocation ( percentages) taking into account ones age, years to retirement, risk tolerance, market outlook etc…

My FA keeps’s me in a conservative portfolio 65/20 and 15 percent cash ( my choosing)—-

Annual reviews have always illustrated a hypothetical 4-6% annual roi, but my thinking ( considering age/assets etc) wants me to pull everything out of the market, considering I am up, let’s say 40% in two years) — That would be appx 8 years of projections

Albeit inflation/tax consequences , is my thinking flawed?
 
What’s the consensus on asset allocation ( percentages) taking into account ones age, years to retirement, risk tolerance, market outlook etc…

My FA keeps’s me in a conservative portfolio 65/20 and 15 percent cash ( my choosing)—-

Annual reviews have always illustrated a hypothetical 4-6% annual roi, but my thinking ( considering age/assets etc) wants me to pull everything out of the market, considering I am up, let’s say 40% in two years) — That would be appx 8 years of projections

Albeit inflation/tax consequences , is my thinking flawed?
At retirement age stay diversified and don’t be greedy
 
What’s the consensus on asset allocation ( percentages) taking into account ones age, years to retirement, risk tolerance, market outlook etc…

My FA keeps’s me in a conservative portfolio 65/20 and 15 percent cash ( my choosing)—-

Annual reviews have always illustrated a hypothetical 4-6% annual roi, but my thinking ( considering age/assets etc) wants me to pull everything out of the market, considering I am up, let’s say 40% in two years) — That would be appx 8 years of projections

Albeit inflation/tax consequences , is my thinking flawed?
My portfolio is up about 50% in past 2 years and I have about 15 % cash and 10% bonds. Most of my stuff is in index funds and ETF's and my superior 2 year gain is mostly due to spectacular gains in 2 chip stocks I own (not the big boys such as , INTEL et al similar )

I'm am 74 and I keep 1 year cash and laddered investment grade bond ETF's to meet the next 5 years of RMDs from my 401K/IRA. These accounts are about 40% of my net investment worth. My thinking right now is to lighten up a lot from stocks/index funds only in my 401K/IRA/Roth where there will not be tax consequences and let the stocks/indexes in my taxable accounts ride (incredibly I have no losses in my taxable accounts to offset gains - if I did I would definitely harvest my losses to offset gains.

I do not think it is wise to put money into bonds right now.

Some things that I don't know if guys coming of medicare age (and then thereafter) realize is that there are consequences to realizing taxable gains besides the obvious tax aspect — the medicare premiums increase dramatically based of your income which would include the gains.

I am very concerned about the roaring market of the past 5 years: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” Herbert Stein, a leading conservative economist who helped make policy in the early 1970s

I do not have a FA.

Any comments/ advice?

Ps. I lived thru the inflation rates of 70's and 80's and I don't know if younger guys have any idea of what it was like. It can happen again.
 
My portfolio is up about 50% in past 2 years and I have about 15 % cash and 10% bonds. Most of my stuff is in index funds and ETF's and my superior 2 year gain is mostly due to spectacular gains in 2 chip stocks I own (not the big boys such as , INTEL et al similar )

I'm am 74 and I keep 1 year cash and laddered investment grade bond ETF's to meet the next 5 years of RMDs from my 401K/IRA. These accounts are about 40% of my net investment worth. My thinking right now is to lighten up a lot from stocks/index funds only in my 401K/IRA/Roth where there will not be tax consequences and let the stocks/indexes in my taxable accounts ride (incredibly I have no losses in my taxable accounts to offset gains - if I did I would definitely harvest my losses to offset gains.

I do not think it is wise to put money into bonds right now.

Some things that I don't know if guys coming of medicare age (and then thereafter) realize is that there are consequences to realizing taxable gains besides the obvious tax aspect — the medicare premiums increase dramatically based of your income which would include the gains.

I am very concerned about the roaring market of the past 5 years: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” Herbert Stein, a leading conservative economist who helped make policy in the early 1970s

I do not have a FA.

Any comments/ advice?
Ty for sharing…

The tax consequences certainty need to be considered.

The sole purpose of me using an FA is for discipline. There are a myriad of index funds, sectors , Hybrid funds and so forth that leave me thinking - Am I invested in the right place?I would churn my own portfolio which is a no no

OTOH, an FA despite fiduciary obligations makes noting if my money is not invested

Then I also think if I have enough money to be so close to retire, who am I invested in the first place
 

pokler

Power Bottom
My portfolio is up about 50% in past 2 years and I have about 15 % cash and 10% bonds. Most of my stuff is in index funds and ETF's and my superior 2 year gain is mostly due to spectacular gains in 2 chip stocks I own (not the big boys such as , INTEL et al similar )

I'm am 74 and I keep 1 year cash and laddered investment grade bond ETF's to meet the next 5 years of RMDs from my 401K/IRA. These accounts are about 40% of my net investment worth. My thinking right now is to lighten up a lot from stocks/index funds only in my 401K/IRA/Roth where there will not be tax consequences and let the stocks/indexes in my taxable accounts ride (incredibly I have no losses in my taxable accounts to offset gains - if I did I would definitely harvest my losses to offset gains.

I do not think it is wise to put money into bonds right now.

Some things that I don't know if guys coming of medicare age (and then thereafter) realize is that there are consequences to realizing taxable gains besides the obvious tax aspect — the medicare premiums increase dramatically based of your income which would include the gains.

I am very concerned about the roaring market of the past 5 years: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” Herbert Stein, a leading conservative economist who helped make policy in the early 1970s

I do not have a FA.

Any comments/ advice?

Ps. I lived thru the inflation rates of 70's and 80's and I don't know if younger guys have any idea of what it was like. It can happen again.
The convention is to annualize returns not cumulative. Yours is not clear.
 
The convention is to annualize returns not cumulative. Yours is not clear.
Not sure what you mean.
MY investment strategy was always based on a decade and not a year.
The only exception to this was two times I felt really concerned about over valuation and froth in the market. I sold all my stocks in Aug of 1987 and again in early 2000. I bought the all back after the market corrected itself. I am getting the same uneasy feeling right now.
 
Are you up 50% in total over past 2 yrs or 50% annualized ( 100% + given compounding ) over the period ?
Yes, not clear.
I dont know the annualized return but my portfolio is up 50% from what it was 2 years ago. This includes dividends and interest and the return is actually higher than that as my RMDs came out of my potfolio from 2019 & 2020 and went into my checking account and spent to pay my taxes.
I did not take my RMD for 2021 yet as I take it in late December when I have a good estimate of my taxable income.

I do not do estimated (never did — when working I didn't withhold anything until November or so and then withheld my whole pay for taxes. When retired I figured out my Fed & State liabilities when estimates from my funds & stocks came out in early December and proportion my RMD accordingly. As long as my RMD is > my tax liabilities will do this.

I don't know why everyone doesn't do it— perfectly legal and why would I want to even try to guess my estimated tax liabilities for the 1st 3 quarters when I don't have to.
 
My portfolio is up about 50% in past 2 years and I have about 15 % cash and 10% bonds. Most of my stuff is in index funds and ETF's and my superior 2 year gain is mostly due to spectacular gains in 2 chip stocks I own (not the big boys such as , INTEL et al similar )

I'm am 74 and I keep 1 year cash and laddered investment grade bond ETF's to meet the next 5 years of RMDs from my 401K/IRA. These accounts are about 40% of my net investment worth. My thinking right now is to lighten up a lot from stocks/index funds only in my 401K/IRA/Roth where there will not be tax consequences and let the stocks/indexes in my taxable accounts ride (incredibly I have no losses in my taxable accounts to offset gains - if I did I would definitely harvest my losses to offset gains.

I do not think it is wise to put money into bonds right now.

Some things that I don't know if guys coming of medicare age (and then thereafter) realize is that there are consequences to realizing taxable gains besides the obvious tax aspect — the medicare premiums increase dramatically based of your income which would include the gains.

I am very concerned about the roaring market of the past 5 years: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop,” Herbert Stein, a leading conservative economist who helped make policy in the early 1970s

I do not have a FA.

Any comments/ advice?

Ps. I lived thru the inflation rates of 70's and 80's and I don't know if younger guys have any idea of what it was like. It can happen again.
The 10% CDs and the 14% mortgage might make a comeback?
 
The 10% CDs and the 14% mortgage might make a comeback?
You must be a lot younger than me as I remember CD rates of over 18% ( put some of my new IRA deposits into them) and mortgage rates of over 16%. I also remember inflation at over 13%.
Most companies didn't increase wages anywhere near that amount so unless you had some special in demand skills, the company either had to pay up or you quit and went to another company that did.

The big winner was the US treasury as every one got put into higher tax brackets.
The big losers were people on a pension and the average worker.

I remember buying a car at that time and the dealers were adding (and getting) a "market adjustment charge" above the MSRP.

Trust me on this — you don't want to go there again. Once it starts it feeds on itself.
 
You must be a lot younger than me as I remember CD rates of over 18% ( put some of my new IRA deposits into them) and mortgage rates of over 16%. I also remember inflation at over 13%.
Most companies didn't increase wages anywhere near that amount so unless you had some special in demand skills, the company either had to pay up or you quit and went to another company that did.

The big winner was the US treasury as every one got put into higher tax brackets.
The big losers were people on a pension and the average worker.

I remember buying a car at that time and the dealers were adding (and getting) a "market adjustment charge" above the MSRP.

Trust me on this — you don't want to go there again. Once it starts it feeds on itself.
Agreed- This is not something that needs to be repeated i-

I do find the current trend of prices hikes in the broad consumer markets very unsettling, despite solid investment performance and increased wages.

The entry level worker and those who work for minimum wage or close too it will suffer most
 
You must be a lot younger than me as I remember CD rates of over 18% ( put some of my new IRA deposits into them) and mortgage rates of over 16%. I also remember inflation at over 13%.
Most companies didn't increase wages anywhere near that amount so unless you had some special in demand skills, the company either had to pay up or you quit and went to another company that did.

The big winner was the US treasury as every one got put into higher tax brackets.
The big losers were people on a pension and the average worker.

I remember buying a car at that time and the dealers were adding (and getting) a "market adjustment charge" above the MSRP.

Trust me on this — you don't want to go there again. Once it starts it feeds on itself.
Too many tools at the Feds disposal today. When the infrastructure money kicks in the inflation will recede
 
Also when the supply chains get caught up you'll see the inflation start to recede.
IMHO, wage growth is having just as, if not more of an effect..
The big box stores, retail outlets amongst others, are upping their starting salaries and increasing hiring bonuses etc which is having a significant effect on prices
 

pokler

Power Bottom
Really?
So what you are saying is when another $1 trillion of money is pumped into the economy inflation will recede.
The Fed has made a terrible inflation call by not recognizing structural changes related to Covid. They will have to soon reverse policy by accelerating the taper and raising rates sooner than expected before inflationary expectations become totally unanchored. All bad for the market.
 
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