Not exactly fucked if you can recognize the peak, then sell just below before the bid goes much lower. If you wait, you most definitely can be fucked and lose most or all of your profits. Even though there are some technical indicators, you never really know you're at the top until the moment has passed. Best to sell in stages, lock in profits as you go along
Do you watch Jim Cramer's "Mad Money"
- Thread starter elmo16
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I understand that there are still long term concerns about the health of the economy in general, and the banks in particular. I'm not saying that any company is out of the woods. But it's still nice to get some good news and the market responded accordingly. FWIW, I just sold my banking shares the last few days as we're at the top of this trend for now. Took the money and ran.
My only regret is that I didn't buy Citi when it was below $1
My only regret is that I didn't buy Citi when it was below $1
Although I don't watch his show, I have seen parts of it and I don't have any real problem with him (no more than most pundits). His style is a bit brash for my taste, and he delivers more entertainment than serious analysis IMO. Anyone who listens to him blindly has themselves to blame. I do think the slogan for his show "In Cramer We Trust" casts him in a role he doesn't deserve. I was happy to see John Stewart call him out on his bad predictions, if only to make his track record more known, so the average investor has more information to judge him by. A lot of people want to listen to what some of these financial "gurus" have to say, as they assume the gurus are so much smarter than them. Anyone who was recommending buys on Bear Sterns days before their collapse clearly isn't all that.
Cramer often says he does his loud stichk because he feels that the true art and science of stock trading can be dull, and he is just trying to make the subject more entertaining.
Dave, I don't know if selling all your bank stocks was wise. There has been talk that the Feds will let the large banks go broke, what will really happen is that the feds will force the ouster of the bank managements and even their management boards. There is pressure on Citi to convert most of it's preferred stock to common stock. You also have to realize that the Obama administration is under pressure to stop helping the banks and start help the poor dupes who accepted those sub-prime morgs. This won't happen, but he has to pay lip service to these dupes. This is pure liberal politics along with "Cap and Trade".
Dave, I don't know if selling all your bank stocks was wise. There has been talk that the Feds will let the large banks go broke, what will really happen is that the feds will force the ouster of the bank managements and even their management boards. There is pressure on Citi to convert most of it's preferred stock to common stock. You also have to realize that the Obama administration is under pressure to stop helping the banks and start help the poor dupes who accepted those sub-prime morgs. This won't happen, but he has to pay lip service to these dupes. This is pure liberal politics along with "Cap and Trade".
Yeah, I understand what he's trying to do. It's just not for me. Even if I was looking to be entertained, he's just not my style. As it is, I prefer my market info to be as analytical and 'scientific' as possible. If my accountant started worrying more about entertaining me than offering sound financial guidance, I'd look elsewhere.
I'm under the impression that they're at the top of their 2 month rally and will come down a bit, where I'll buy back in. I suspect they'll pull back until the government reveals the results of the stress tests in early May, where I'll buy back in. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I felt it was more important to lock in my profits than hold out for anything more right now. I have another stock I'm eyeing for a nice rally heading into the filing of their 10-Q, and I want to put more money on that one so I can ride the wave.
I'm under the impression that they're at the top of their 2 month rally and will come down a bit, where I'll buy back in. I suspect they'll pull back until the government reveals the results of the stress tests in early May, where I'll buy back in. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I felt it was more important to lock in my profits than hold out for anything more right now. I have another stock I'm eyeing for a nice rally heading into the filing of their 10-Q, and I want to put more money on that one so I can ride the wave.
LOL. Who knows, we probably have at least a few famous people on UG. I think what he said is common sense though. Early last summer I sold everything I owned, and didn't start buying again until early December. Turns out I was really able to minimize my losses, and I had enough cash to jump back in when I sensed a potential bottom.
This is true for every bank except Citi, If you bought it low enough, it will never be that low again. I've heard that the Feds want to reorganize Citi's mangt. team, convert some preferred stock to common stock, and get them to sell off some very over leveraged parts. If they do that, the Feds will relieve them of their bad paper, and Citi could go ski hi.
I'm not even saying Citi or the other banks will necessarily go to their previous lows, but they're definitely (IMO) going to come down from where they are now. Hypothetically speaking, let's just say I had 1000 shares of Citi that I sold at $4.00. Even if they only go down 25% (which is a conservative estimate IMO), I could then buy 1000 shares at $3.00 and still have the balance of $1000 in cash. Granted, I could have held on to a few shares just in case they continue to go higher, but I'm that confident they're due for a significant correction, and like I said, I have another stock I want to play right now.
The $64,000 question is, what leads you to believe that the banks will go down? All indications I've read is that the banks will go up. Even the most bearish analysts are not predicting a down turn in the banks, just doubt in a continuing rate of increase. They point to the fact that the banks usually lead the economy by about six months, and they doubt that the economy will improve measurably in six months. Cramer said that the recent upturn to too strong for the bears to pull it down to any significant extent with short selling.
There will be management changes at Citi very soon, along with parts of it sold or just closed down and preferred stock conversions. Similar changes will be forced on the other major banks, although I don't know very much about the other banks as I didn't buy their stocks.
There will be management changes at Citi very soon, along with parts of it sold or just closed down and preferred stock conversions. Similar changes will be forced on the other major banks, although I don't know very much about the other banks as I didn't buy their stocks.
I'm not saying the banks are necessarily in for a major slide, just that their due for a correction at the very least. There are a couple of reasons I feel that way. First, stocks that rally in anticipation of their earnings reports generally sell off for a bit after the announcement, even if the earnings were better than expected (look at Citi on Friday). Second, with the government due to release results of the stress tests, thats bound to generate a certain level of fear in the marketplace, which should translate into a selloff. Maybe not across the board, but for the banks I was holding I expect that might be the case.
Also, I should clarify something. I would never recommend to someone else that they sell all of their bank holdings. I would recommend selling some off to lock in profits, but keeping some just in case they go higher. I'm not following that however because I'm pretty sure the ones I owned at their peak for now, and I have somewhere else I'd rather put my money at the moment.
Also, I should clarify something. I would never recommend to someone else that they sell all of their bank holdings. I would recommend selling some off to lock in profits, but keeping some just in case they go higher. I'm not following that however because I'm pretty sure the ones I owned at their peak for now, and I have somewhere else I'd rather put my money at the moment.
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I understood what you were saying.
Like I said above, I woudn't recommend to anyone else to sell all their shares of Citi. I would recommend taking some profits and here's why. IMO, C is due for a correction. Also, chances are they won't be able to repeat their 1Q performance in the 2Q. The first quarter is traditionally the best quarter for banks, and even some CEO's of other banks have warned that they might not be able to match their 1Q performance.
Consider the following hypothetical example: Let's say someone bought 1000 shares of C for $1, and sold 800 at $4. That leaves them with 200 shares and $3200 cash ($2200 profit plus the original $1000 investment). Now if Citi goes back down to $3, you can buy back those 800 shares for $2400, utilizing all your profit and $200 from the original $1000. So you still have $800 in cash, plus the same 1,000 shares, which for all intents and purposes you paid $200 for out of pocket (the rest were paid for by your profits) Or instead of keeping that $800 in cash, you could buy more shares, let's say up to 265 more to stick with round numbers. That's 26.5% more shares than what you originally started with.
Now selling 800 shares would be a pretty bold move for some, but you can do the same thing selling less shares at different price points. Granted your % gains may go down, but then again so does the risk that you'll miss out if the stock continues to climb.
It really depends on what your goals are in the market. If you're in it for the long haul, it might not be worth it for you to play around like I am. If you're like me and looking to make some money now, as well as get yourself set-up for when the market recovers, you can make some moves like I'm describing above. You absolutely risk missing on some profit if C jumps, but that's the whole point of the market, risks and rewards.
Like I said above, I woudn't recommend to anyone else to sell all their shares of Citi. I would recommend taking some profits and here's why. IMO, C is due for a correction. Also, chances are they won't be able to repeat their 1Q performance in the 2Q. The first quarter is traditionally the best quarter for banks, and even some CEO's of other banks have warned that they might not be able to match their 1Q performance.
Consider the following hypothetical example: Let's say someone bought 1000 shares of C for $1, and sold 800 at $4. That leaves them with 200 shares and $3200 cash ($2200 profit plus the original $1000 investment). Now if Citi goes back down to $3, you can buy back those 800 shares for $2400, utilizing all your profit and $200 from the original $1000. So you still have $800 in cash, plus the same 1,000 shares, which for all intents and purposes you paid $200 for out of pocket (the rest were paid for by your profits) Or instead of keeping that $800 in cash, you could buy more shares, let's say up to 265 more to stick with round numbers. That's 26.5% more shares than what you originally started with.
Now selling 800 shares would be a pretty bold move for some, but you can do the same thing selling less shares at different price points. Granted your % gains may go down, but then again so does the risk that you'll miss out if the stock continues to climb.
It really depends on what your goals are in the market. If you're in it for the long haul, it might not be worth it for you to play around like I am. If you're like me and looking to make some money now, as well as get yourself set-up for when the market recovers, you can make some moves like I'm describing above. You absolutely risk missing on some profit if C jumps, but that's the whole point of the market, risks and rewards.
I know Slinky would rather we don't talk in specifics about stocks we intend to buy, it could be looked at as an attempt to manipulate the market, just like guys posting on stock message boards trying to pull pump & dump scams. In my posts about Citi group I was talking about a stock I've already sold, and posting hypothetically about a strategy someone might use to maximize their gains
However, to answer your question no it isn't DNDN.
However, to answer your question no it isn't DNDN.
Hey, you never know. Look at the selloff in the financials today after rumors started spreading on the street that DaveNJ was shorting financials. 
Seriously...I respect Slinky and his wishes for the board, and I do understand his line of thinking. Not that I think we could move a stock like C, but the last thing we need is guys trying to, or coming on UG to tout their latest BS penny stock pick.
Ours is not to question why, our is but to do or.....get banned
Seriously...I respect Slinky and his wishes for the board, and I do understand his line of thinking. Not that I think we could move a stock like C, but the last thing we need is guys trying to, or coming on UG to tout their latest BS penny stock pick.
Ours is not to question why, our is but to do or.....get banned
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