The median dollar amount on the board on DOND is less than $1000. You have a 50% chance of choosing less than that at the outset.
The mean dollar amount of all suitcases is nearly 263,000.
If this were an 'infinite tries' game (like poker), wouldn't this game have a positive expected value of nearly $263,000?
The fact that it is a 'one shot Deal' and NOT an 'infinite tries' game doesn't quantitatively change the +EV... but, getting one shot, most contestants are uncomfortable with the variance.... (risk of "winning" $1 or $.01 are too high).
The mean dollar amount of all suitcases is nearly 263,000.
If this were an 'infinite tries' game (like poker), wouldn't this game have a positive expected value of nearly $263,000?
The fact that it is a 'one shot Deal' and NOT an 'infinite tries' game doesn't quantitatively change the +EV... but, getting one shot, most contestants are uncomfortable with the variance.... (risk of "winning" $1 or $.01 are too high).