Money and Investing (formerly Pfizer Stock prices)

[Satisfied customer]

I don’t even bother with those metrics. I invest in private equity funds, and the equities and real estate I manage I have been able to make sensible movements across the markets for decades. I studied economics and take a macro view of the investment environment. It’s not hard to realize there are moves to make when the fed is tightening and moves to make when the fed is loosening. It’s not hard to see shifting trends in the adoption of technology, media, and consumables.
You really can’t acknowledge that there are investments that specifically respond to interest rates, recession, war, natural disasters, etc?

 

[pokler]

I don’t even bother with those metrics. I invest in private equity funds, and the equities and real estate I manage I have been able to make sensible movements across the markets for decades. I studied economics and take a macro view of the investment environment. It’s not hard to realize there are moves to make when the fed is tightening and moves to make when the fed is loosening. It’s not hard to see shifting trends in the adoption of technology, media, and consumables.
You really can’t acknowledge that there are investments that specifically respond to interest rates, recession, war, natural disasters, etc?

Of course I can but you said you have performed REALLY well doing it. And I'm sure that by your own thinking you have. Maybe you've met personal goals. But until you can quantify it it's just two guys chewing the fat on a whore board. Those metrics you don't bother with were designed by academia and embraced by the investment mgt industry to see how good a manager really is at factoring in the Fed , war and inflation. Without them I have no idea how you compare to other managers I may want to hire. If a portfolio mngr came to my office interviewing for a spot managing funds I am reponsible for and told me he doesn't bother with risk, return metrics I'll throw him the fuck out of my office.

 

[pokler]

Of course I can but you said you have performed REALLY well doing it. And I'm sure that by your own thinking you have. Maybe you've met personal goals. But until you can quantify it it's just two guys chewing the fat on a whore board. Those metrics you don't bother with were designed by academia and embraced by the investment mgt industry to see how good a manager really is at factoring in the Fed , war and inflation. Without them I have no idea how you compare to other managers I may want to hire. If a portfolio mngr came to my office interviewing for a spot managing funds I am reponsible for and told me he doesn't bother with risk, return metrics I'll throw him the fuck out of my office.

And to be clear by other managers I mean passive index's as well.

 

[genius]

I’m not sure I understand your post-

My thoughts are not to day trade, but should we see another 5-10% drop in indices, I would put cash sitting on sidelines in IRA to work on longer term investments

Basing your decision to invest in the market if you see another 5-10% drop in indices is (in my mind anyway) a definition of timing the market.

For example my decisions to invest in the market (overall market or some stock/bond I like) were always based on when I had disposable cash or, when I was working, into my 401K or Roths when I was eligible or to sell, when conditions in my investment changed e.g., new management I didn't agree with and thus not market timing.

 

[trader1]

Basing your decision to invest in the market if you see another 5-10% drop in indices is (in my mind anyway) a definition of timing the market.

For example my decisions to invest in the market (overall market or some stock/bond I like) were always based on when I had disposable cash or, when I was working, into my 401K or Roths when I was eligible or to sell, when conditions in my investment changed e.g., new management I didn't agree with and thus not market timing.

You are correct.
I took some money off the table when the indices were much higher in January ( against advice of my FA).

There were discussions about this earlier in this thread.

I received a call yesterday from FA ( prior to opening) when futures were down 2-3%, asking me if I wanted to put that money (IRA) to play. I stubbornly declined thinking we have another 5-10% on the down side- From yesterdays lows to todays close we are up 5% ish..
My stubbornness cost me a bit..

I’ll stick to mongering

 

[genius]

.....BTW, Isaving bonds purchased directly from the treasury ( treasurydirect.gov ) are now paying 7.12%. Alas you can only invest $10K per person per year. Note that they are adjusted every 6mo by inflation. As close to zero risk as you can get.

From today's WSJ Wed, pg A9 The Safe Investment Set to Yield Nearly 10% .

Looks like WSJ has finally discovered an investment that I have purchased the max allowed over past couple of years.

I understand why they have ignored such a boring, risk free* investment that only can only increase in value, fed taxes on interest deferred until cashed ( can be kept for 30 years) and free of State & local taxes: No one makes a commission buying and selling or managing such.

* technically not totally risk free as it is possible US Gov't can go bankrupt and default on its obligations — although if it does we will all have bigger problems than just owning I Bonds.

 

[Satisfied customer]

QUOTE="genius, post: 1264448, member: 8302"].....BTW, Isaving bonds purchased directly from the treasury ( treasurydirect.gov ) are now paying 7.12%. Alas you can only invest $10K per person per year. Note that they are adjusted every 6mo by inflation. As close to zero risk as you can get.
From today's WSJ Wed, pg A9 The Safe Investment Set to Yield Nearly 10% .

Looks like WSJ has finally discovered an investment that I have purchased the max allowed over past couple of years.

I understand why they have ignored such a boring, risk free* investment that only can only increase in value, fed taxes on interest deferred until cashed ( can be kept for 30 years) and free of State & local taxes: No one makes a commission buying and selling or managing such.

* technically not totally risk free as it is possible US Gov't can go bankrupt and default on its obligations — although if it does we will all have bigger problems than just owning I Bonds.

Do you buy paper bonds or use Treasury Direct?

 

[genius]

Do you buy paper bonds or use Treasury Direct?

You are allowed $10K from Treasury Direct and $5K in paper per person.
However the $10K max is electronic and the $5K max is only from your income tax refund.
So if you want to buy the $15K max $10K is electronic and $5K is paper.

Since I'm a firm believe in never over withholding I could never buy paper. This may change this year as I want more of the IBonds.

I don't do estimated (never did, never will) and I figure out my taxes in mid December and withhold F&S what is needed from my RMD. I will have enough left over to over withhold.

BTW, you can gift to others if you want but each of the others cant have more than $10K electronic

 

[Satisfied customer]

You are allowed $10K from Treasury Direct and $5K in paper per person.
However the $10K max is electronic and the $5K max is only from your income tax refund.
So if you want to buy the $15K max $10K is electronic and $5K is paper.

Since I'm a firm believe in never over withholding I could never buy paper. This may change this year as I want more of the IBonds.

I don't do estimated (never did, never will) and I figure out my taxes in mid December and withhold F&S what is needed from my RMD. I will have enough left over to over withhold.

BTW, you can gift to others if you want but each of the others cant have more than $10K electronic

lol yeah I haven’t gotten a tax refund in decades, even while overestimating my quarterly we never seem to escape a surprise distribution that sends us over.

 

[pokler]

From today's WSJ Wed, pg A9 The Safe Investment Set to Yield Nearly 10% .

Looks like WSJ has finally discovered an investment that I have purchased the max allowed over past couple of years.

I understand why they have ignored such a boring, risk free* investment that only can only increase in value, fed taxes on interest deferred until cashed ( can be kept for 30 years) and free of State & local taxes: No one makes a commission buying and selling or managing such.

* technically not totally risk free as it is possible US Gov't can go bankrupt and default on its obligations — although if it does we will all have bigger problems than just owning I Bonds.

It's just not on Wall Street radar because the amount you can buy is peanuts. Inconsequential in the world of fixed income portfolios .

 

[genius]

It's just not on Wall Street radar because the amount you can buy is peanuts. Inconsequential in the world of fixed income portfolios .

agreed for the 1st year or two. However, if a couple each buys 10k a year after 10 years they will have together 200K (300K if you do the over with holding taxes and buy 5K each with their refunds) plus the accrued interest. This is (most of it anyway) as good as cash in terms of safe and liquid. Not peanuts for most people in terms of what percentage of their portfolio that is liquid and will absolutely be there if they should need it.

 

[pokler]

agreed for the 1st year or two. However, if a couple each buys 10k a year after 10 years they will have together 200K (300K if you do the over with holding taxes and buy 5K each with their refunds) plus the accrued interest. This is (most of it anyway) as good as cash in terms of safe and liquid. Not peanuts for most people in terms of what percentage of their portfolio that is liquid and will absolutely be there if they should need it.

Still peanuts .

 

[trader1]

Still peanuts .

300k?
That’s a lot of peanuts..

 

[trader1]

It's just not on Wall Street radar because the amount you can buy is peanuts. Inconsequential in the world of fixed income portfolios .

And for those that prefer to keep everything under “one roof” per se

When I do go to the monger house up in the sky, I’d like to keep it simple for the family

 

[pokler]

300k?
That’s a lot of peanuts..

That's a hypothetical over 10yrs.
Might be meaningful for mom and pops Saving to put Junior to school but that's about it.

 

[genius]

That's a hypothetical over 10yrs.
Might be meaningful for mom and pops Saving to put Junior to school but that's about it.

When as you put it "to put Junior to school " the last thing i would start out with is interest bearing investments. As I had an 18 year horizon before the money was needed I started out with aggressive investments in NY529 and only after 10 years (with 8 to go before 1st $ needed) did I start to gradually change over to more conservative (including treasury strips) stuff. Worked out really well with no F &S taxes on gains and a NYS tax deduction every year for me. The only fly in the ointment was junior was really smart, getting scholarships and I had to find, um, "creative" ways to spend down the $ on qualified education expenses.

ps. I bonds don't go in 529's.

 

[genius]

And for those that prefer to keep everything under “one roof” per se

When I do go to the monger house up in the sky, I’d like to keep it simple for the family

Yeah, I wouldn't want to inconvenience my heirs when they got the $$$.
Hint, it's not peanuts.

 

[pokler]

When as you put it "to put Junior to school " the last thing i would start out with is interest bearing investments. As I had an 18 year horizon before the money was needed I started out with aggressive investments in NY529 and only after 10 years (with 8 to go before 1st $ needed) did I start to gradually change over to more conservative (including treasury strips) stuff. Worked out really well with no F &S taxes on gains and a NYS tax deduction every year for me. The only fly in the ointment was junior was really smart, getting scholarships and I had to find, um, "creative" ways to spend down the $ on qualified education expenses.

ps. I bonds don't go in 529's.

If was a betting man I'd bet that someone with a new born wanting to save for college and seeing all the volatility in the market would not see a current risk free rate of about 10% as the last thing they'd buy but possibly the first.
That said even if a million people or 10 million did this it's still peanuts in the multi trillion dollar fixed income markets to say nothing of the fact they are not negotiable instruments .

 

[genius]

If was a betting man I'd bet that someone with a new born wanting to save for college and seeing all the volatility in the market would not see a current risk free rate of about 10% as the last thing they'd buy but possibly the first.
That said even if a million people or 10 million did this it's still peanuts in the multi trillion dollar fixed income markets to say nothing of the fact they are not negotiable instruments .

The risk free 10% rate is based on inflation and the rate will be adjusted semiannually . Inflation goes up and down partly (and according to Milton Freedman primarily on spending $ that are from just increasing the supply of money) because of spending habits of political parties and. 18 years is a long time.

 

[pokler]

The risk free 10% rate is based on inflation and the rate will be adjusted semiannually . Inflation goes up and down partly (and according to Milton Freedman primarily on spending $ that are from just increasing the supply of money) because of spending habits of political parties and. 18 years is a long time.

Or if you want to lie just blame on Putin .