Money and Investing (formerly Pfizer Stock prices)

[pokler]

Kindly provide a couple of examples.

These are all the same fund but each has a different fee structure . It is a typical large blend fund. If it underperforms the SP 500 this yr the conclusion is that one fund underperformed NOT nine funds ! Lol
This gets back to your 10,000 Funds comment. Tons of overlap in that number .

American Funds Washington Mutual A
AWSHX
American Funds Washington Mutual F1
WSHFX
American Funds Washington Mutual C
WSHCX
American Funds Washington Mutual R2
RWMBX
American Funds Washington Mutual R5
RWMFX
American Funds Washington Mutual R4
RWMEX
American Funds Washington Mutual R1
RWMAX
American Funds Washington Mutual R3
RWMCX
American Funds Washington Mutual F3
FWMIX

 

[genius]

These are all the same fund but each has a different fee structure . It is a typical large blend fund. If it underperforms the SP 500 this yr the conclusion is that one fund underperformed NOT nine funds ! Lol
This gets back to your 10,000 Funds comment. Tons of overlap in that number .

American Funds Washington Mutual A
AWSHX
American Funds Washington Mutual F1
WSHFX
American Funds Washington Mutual C
WSHCX
American Funds Washington Mutual R2
RWMBX
American Funds Washington Mutual R5
RWMFX
American Funds Washington Mutual R4
RWMEX
American Funds Washington Mutual R1
RWMAX
American Funds Washington Mutual R3
RWMCX
American Funds Washington Mutual F3
FWMIX

Maybe we are talking with cross purposes.
I knew about that as when I posted about DSW Science and Technology FUND and the 10 yr annual returns for various classes (mine is the grandfathered in "S" : 15.93, 16.27,17.12(S), 17.26 I realize that all the classes are the same funds.

what I wanted are examples of how asset allocation was best indication of market performance.
You said "And I can't say this enough. Asset allocation is a far bigger determinant of your portfolios performance than if a given fund is beating the market"

For example I am less interested at my age in beating the market and more interested in getting a decent returns with smaller swings in up and down markets. So my asset allocation is more conservative than perhaps that of someone who is trying to beat the market.
.

 

[pokler]

Maybe we are talking with cross purposes.
I knew about that as when I posted about DSW Science and Technology FUND and the 10 yr annual returns for various classes (mine is the grandfathered in "S" : 15.93, 16.27,17.12(S), 17.26 I realize that all the classes are the same funds.

what I wanted are examples of how asset allocation was best indication of market performance.
You said "And I can't say this enough. Asset allocation is a far bigger determinant of your portfolios performance than if a given fund is beating the market"

For example I am less interested at my age in beating the market and more interested in getting a decent returns with smaller swings in up and down markets. So my asset allocation is more conservative than perhaps that of someone who is trying to beat the market.
.

Ok I thought you were asking about the funds. But here is a quick example. Look at the 10yr period after the NASDQ bust so the end on 2002 to 2012. Let's say you were 50/50 stocks , bonds at the time which is moderate risk. If your stock allocation was US stocks as it probably was ( in some index fund ) you would of significantly underperformed someone who allocated a good part of his 50% stock piece to non US developed markets and emerging markets.
So both of you similar risks but his allocation decision made him more $ than you .

 

[OSMonger]

Ok I thought you were asking about the funds. But here is a quick example. Look at the 10yr period after the NASDQ bust so the end on 2002 to 2012. Let's say you were 50/50 stocks , bonds at the time which is moderate risk. If your stock allocation was US stocks as it probably was ( in some index fund ) you would of significantly underperformed someone who allocated a good part of his 50% stock piece to non US developed markets and emerging markets.
So both of you similar risks but his allocation decision made him more $ than you .

You are comparing US Equity and Non-US Dev Equity as equals and they are not, form a risk perspective.

 

[pokler]

You are comparing US Equity and Non-US Dev Equity as equals and they are not, form a risk perspective.

Over the past 20 years Non Dev US and the S&P 500 risk as defined as standard deviation were just about the same , 20.6 vs 19.2 respectively. EM a bit higher. But the over all portfolio's risk would of been reduced due to the lower correlation of these assets classed vs US Stocks. Even just a 25% Allocation produced much better risk adjusted returns ( sharpe Ratios) or for you fans of downside risk adjusted returns , Sortino ratios.

 

[genius]

Ok I thought you were asking about the funds. But here is a quick example. Look at the 10yr period after the NASDQ bust so the end on 2002 to 2012. Let's say you were 50/50 stocks , bonds at the time which is moderate risk. If your stock allocation was US stocks as it probably was ( in some index fund ) you would of significantly underperformed someone who allocated a good part of his 50% stock piece to non US developed markets and emerging markets.
So both of you similar risks but his allocation decision made him more $ than you .

Thank you.

 

[luvmaturechicks]

As an industry, roughly 60% of mutual funds underperform their stated benchmarks on an annual basis. large cap growth is almost 75% underperformance. Some asset classes do better but very few. Go out longer and the rate of underperformance grows. Having spent many many years working for the fund companies, I can tell you, they know they suck on a relative basis. Hidden fees, shifting benchmarks to try and look better. The whole share class crap finally got taken down. Plenty of better options for investing.

A far cheaper alternative to basic mutuals is to do direct invest in similiar mutuals such as offered by Fidelity or Vanguard, using funds deposited directly with them.

 

[luvmaturechicks]

-For lowest risk, closest to par with matching market returns, low priced ETFs / index funds work well.

-Also be prepared for growth opportunities, by adding cash with every 5% drop across other holdings.

-As a general rule, I don't buy any stock in a company that has negative earnings in TTM (last 12 months).

-For dividend earners, make sure that div rate listed is not just percentage of current stock price, but be sure that they have history of continued Div payout. Some "stock tip" companies list tickers with high dividends, but many of them haven't paid out in quite some time and calculation is based on the last one paid.

 

[luvmaturechicks]

Emerging markets is something to look at now as well. Buying US Mutuals or ETFs, with EM exposure, is ideal, for people who feel that US markets are overheated and overdue for big correction. One caveat is that EMs historically move closer to 2-5% annually, whereas US has been closer to 7-10% or so, other than this blockbuster year. For example, my tech portfolio holdings up 65-115%.

I personally won't buy EM funds with investments in China, as I don't believe any of their numbers, without allowing outside auditors or regulators unrestricted access to analyze their companies.

 

[pokler]

Emerging markets is something to look at now as well. Buying US Mutuals or ETFs, with EM exposure, is ideal, for people who feel that US markets are overheated and overdue for big correction. One caveat is that EMs historically move closer to 2-5% annually, whereas US has been closer to 7-10% or so, other than this blockbuster year. For example, my tech portfolio holdings up 65-115%.

I personally won't buy EM funds with investments in China, as I don't believe any of their numbers, without allowing outside auditors or regulators unrestricted access to analyze their companies.

What do you mean EM moves 2-5% annually ?
That is the top performing asset class for the 20 yr period ended 12/31/20 with a 9.4% annualized return.

 

[trader1]

Last week I reached out to FA suggesting we buy cannibas stocks and the like. The firm has a strict policy . No. ( solicited accounts). I opened another account at a discount broker with the intent on taking some “play money” and doing a lot of day trading .Needless to say, I missed the boat this week, ( cannibas) became complete unhinged yesterday, bought a bunch of crap stocks, maxed out liquidity, tied up mongering money and to top it all off, had a shitty experience at an AMP

I am glad it’s not lightening out

 

[Slinky Bender]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/can...amestop-jumps-in-tilray-surges-25percent.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/reddit-trader-favored-cannabis-stocks-jump-again-on-thursday.html

 

[luvmaturechicks]

What do you mean EM moves 2-5% annually ?
That is the top performing asset class for the 20 yr period ended 12/31/20 with a 9.4% annualized return.

What do you mean EM moves 2-5% annually ?
That is the top performing asset class for the 20 yr period ended 12/31/20 with a 9.4% annualized return.

Not in every fund and depends on which country is focus.

Granted XCEM, has seen 5 yr return of 100%+

Majority of funds that I looked at have about 5% annual in last 3-5 years.
Ex: EMXC total avg annualized return 4.42%

True that in last 10-20 yrs, rateof return was higher, but have to price in the major drop to lows and recent climb back to those levels.

Long-term Ex: Nikkei just hit levels today not seen since early 1990s.
High of 38,915 Oct 1989.
Low of 7,972 in Apr 2003.
Previous close 30,467, Feb 2021.

 

[trader1]

I’ve been reading up on a Hedge Fund- Ark Investment Group.

incredible returns over the past few years. Unique to them is that they publish a list of all their holdings daily- Mostly technology, biotechnology..
In lieu of picking individual stocks,( while I don’t recall minimum investment) this appears to be very high reward with very high risk.. Worth a look for higher risk takers

 

[pokler]

Not in every fund and depends on which country is focus.

Granted XCEM, has seen 5 yr return of 100%+

Majority of funds that I looked at have about 5% annual in last 3-5 years.
Ex: EMXC total avg annualized return 4.42%

True that in last 10-20 yrs, rateof return was higher, but have to price in the major drop to lows and recent climb back to those levels.

Long-term Ex: Nikkei just hit levels today not seen since early 1990s.
High of 38,915 Oct 1989.
Low of 7,972 in Apr 2003.
Previous close 30,467, Feb 2021.

Morningstar shows 80 EM funds with a 5 yr history. The median fund did 16.17% and the 70th one ( only 10 did worse) was 11.28% over the 5yrs. So I have no idea of where you are Getting the misguided 5% !

 

[trader1]

Plenty of discussion earlier in this thread of very respectable returns across the board for the past couple of years.
I threw some money into the options market earlier this year and lost, betting on a large correction. Revisiting this and doubling down...

The out of control spending leading to predictions of unsustainable budget deficits, significant price pressures ( inflation) that we are seeing across the board, global commodity shortages, a poor jobs report this morning lead me to believe we are still headed for that crash...
My .02 for today

 

[pokler]

History shows investing at all time highs results in greater returns over next 3 yrs than at a random entry point

 

[OSMonger]

History shows investing at all time highs results in greater returns over next 3 yrs than at a random entry point

Not sure what that refers to, but in 2000, that wouldn’t have worked, and in 2007, that wouldn’t have worked. If you add the qualifier to your statement, “in a secular bull market...” then I’d agree. But otherwise, you could lose considerably.

 

[pokler]

Not sure what that refers to, but in 2000, that wouldn’t have worked, and in 2007, that wouldn’t have worked. If you add the qualifier to your statement, “in a secular bull market...” then I’d agree. But otherwise, you could lose considerably.

Think of all the times you put on CNBC heard " S&P had is at a néw all time high.Over the past few years that occurred dozens of times. Since 1926 that's occurred hundreds of times. You cherry picked 2 points. I never said it's happens at ALl such points lol

 

[OSMonger]

Think of all the times you put on CNBC heard " S&P had is at a néw all time high.Over the past few years that occurred dozens of times. Since 1926 that's occurred hundreds of times. You cherry picked 2 points. I never said it's happens at ALl such points lol

Not cherry picking. Your assertion is ok as long as it’s a new high during a secular bull market. More importantly, just stop trying to time the market and spread out your investing over a stretch of time. Of everyone invested like they do in their 401k, they’d be far more successfully. Drop a little in every couple weeks and rebalance quarterly/annually and you’ll win.