Is Housing Starting To Bottom ???

S

seeker6591

banned
#1
#1
I saw this blog on cnbc recently which I thought was interesting:


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Mad Mail: Is Cramer Right About Housing Bottom?


Hey Cramer: If you change your mind when the facts change, as you said the other day, can you explain how your June 30, 2009, housing market recovery date has not changed? Every financial fact fathomable has changed since you set that date, yet you have not changed your mind. Please explain.

Cramer says: “Well, that’s because it’s right. Why should I change it if it’s going to be right? When a house falls 40% in value and mortgage rates go down, that house gets sold. That’s what’s happening all over the country. If anything, I am beginning to believe that my number’s a little more consensus-like. The CEO of Wells Fargo the other day went with me. It’s getting uncomfortable and crowded in here.”

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There has actually been some anecdotal empiracal data on this , a pickup in morgage applications, a pickup in foreclosure sales ( which reduces supply ), and most recently, a 100 basis point drop in mortgage rates. Also, we are in the third year of a cycle which in the past usually has lasted no more than 4 or 5 years.

So, it has been my thought recently that perhaps housing may be nearing a bottom now.???

I am curious what others think and of course, any discussion is welcome !
 
C

celtic knight

#3
#3
billyS said:
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I think no! There are so many people who are so far under water. They don't have screwy mortgages, but they are starting to think they are foolish to hold on until prices return to where they were when they bought. I see another wave of forclosures. Many people in this situation will stop paying.
 
F

fuckingahole

#5
#5
It would be nice, but we are screwed. I go on zillow atleast twice a week hoping, but my house has only rebounded 2k according to zillow.. whew heww.. wheres the other 50k its dropped according to them
 
V

vermeer

#6
#6
I am waiting till Slinky says we've reached bottom. Then I;m going to buy a 3-bedroom unit at 740 Park Ave. and move in 30 of my closest relatives from Kenya. We will roast goats in the dining room each night, and have lots of tribal dancing.

Slinky, just say "when".
 
Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#8
#8
It's funny, just the other day on I think NY1 they had some "big shot" broker saying the market was down 20% and she thought maybe another 5% or less would be bottom. I have no idea how much the market is down (and it's happened so rapidly that NO ONE could possibly accurately know what the market in Manhattan is down) but I'll bet anyone who wants any amount of money they want and give 2 to 1 odds that wherever it is right now, it's going down by more than another 5%. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if it ended up down 50% from it's peak, at least with certain properties / types of properties.
 
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Scott68

#9
#9
Manhattan properties are down approximately 10%, this is the average type of apt. non luxury studios and 1br for which the market is still good. High end stuff is taking a beating, townhouses, luxury type multiple bedroom apts. Outside Manhattan, One family houses east of Queens are really taking a beating, they are staying on the market 6 months plus. Multiple unit properties are holding most of their value which is primarily based on the rent roll. In general, previous home sales consisted of a balance of supply(homes for sale) and demand(buyers).

The core of the problem is that as more homes come up on the market, less buyers are available. You can get a mortgage, you probably need to put 25-30% down as opposed to 5-10% 2 years ago. Properties are not appraising as loosely as they were before, forcing buyers to come up with the difference, which in these days could/will kill a deal.

As sellers become desperate, they my take low ball offer which affect the appraised value of a similar property in the immediate area.

We have not even begun to see the bottom and how it will effect neighborhoods. The proverbial domino's are almost stacked and haven't been tipped yet.
 
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F

fuckingahole

#10
#10
Well out here in Suffolk my house is back on the rise for the last month or so.. still a nice chunk of change below what it was worth in the summer of 07 but progress seems to be made.. well its only on the rise, not sinking anymore.. (crossing fingers)
 
Slinky Bender

Slinky Bender

The All Powerful Moderator
#13
#13
Scott68 said:
Manhattan properties are down approximately 10%, this is the average type of apt. non luxury studios and 1br for which the market is still good.
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I'm not sure this is correct. While annecdotal evidence is never perfect, I have an example of something concrete. There is a prewar Coop studio on West 23rd Street in one of the better Chelsea buildings. There is a unit which had been in contract for $490,000 and had a Baord rejection which is now asking $399,000 and the highest offer on the table is $360,000.
 
Z

Zeek

#14
#14
vermeer said:
I am waiting till Slinky says we've reached bottom. Then I;m going to buy a 3-bedroom unit at 740 Park Ave. and move in 30 of my closest relatives from Kenya. We will roast goats in the dining room each night, and have lots of tribal dancing.

Slinky, just say "when".
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Verm, that is funny. I remember getting myself in a jam back in the 80's when I lived in CO and had bought a house--my first. I was moving back east for school and the CO re market was falling off a cliff due to the oil shock that devastated the rocky mountain and texas region. I wound up selling the house to two Vietnamese families when no one else was selling because I had a finished basement (and so in a neighborhood with primarily 3 bedroom houses, mine had 6 bedrooms). I had to go over and pick up some personal items left over from the move on a Saturday morning and arrived before the household was awake--kids spread all over the floor in every room--must have been 30 people sleeping in that house!!

Well I got out--they had cheap housing--it was all good!!

How do you think all of those beautiful homes in so many downtown and close-in areas in cities are all broken up into small apartments and sometimes SRO apartments!
 
S

Scott68

#15
#15
Slinky,

I didn't have any examples, but in your specific expample, what is true, is true. I made some blanket statements that are on average close enough to the truth. One major variable I did leave out for the purpose of getting into a very lengthy post is the board approval process and how they are tightening up with their approval process and how that will determine the sale or take into consideration the desperation of the seller.

I hope that is not your apartment.
 
S

scoochamenz1

#16
#16
Slinky Bender said:
I'm not sure this is correct. While annecdotal evidence is never perfect, I have an example of something concrete. There is a prewar Coop studio on West 23rd Street in one of the better Chelsea buildings. There is a unit which had been in contract for $490,000 and had a Baord rejection which is now asking $399,000 and the highest offer on the table is $360,000.
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360k? do they accept visa? lol.
 
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