Blackjack Card Counting
As a VERY recreational BJ player with an aversion to making drastic –EV (negative expected value) bets, over the years I’ve toyed with a system for card counting… I’ve heard that most of the "good" shoe-based games will have a house edge between 0.25% and 0.50%, which is really not that much. Just learning perfect basic strategy is a great start – spotting +EV opportunities and varying (increasing) your bets to exploit them is the name of the card counting game.
My system is probably nothing like the pros use; just a simple system adapted from an “Ace-Five” system that has allowed me to think I’m reducing the house advantage somewhat.
I’d be curious whether others have devised their own systems, or what people think of my system….
Note: this only works in casino blackjack… don’t even TRY it online, where they conceivably re-shuffle after every hand.
I also only play tables where the dealer STANDS on soft 17.
The simple premise is that the more 5s in the deck, the worse for the player (dealer hits 16 and makes 21); and the more Aces are in the deck, the better for the player (more chance for blackjack which pays 3:2 in the player’s favor).
I start out with a count of -2 (signifying house advantage)… As the shoe is dealt I simply add 1 for every “5” card that I see, and subtract 1 for every “Ace” I see, and keep the running count in mind until the deck is shuffled again. (I may shuffle or stack my chips in such a way to help me keep track of the running count… trying to be as un-obvious as possible).
I then vary my bets based on the running count….
whenever the count is <1, I simply bet 1 “unit” (e.g., $10 at a $10 table)
whenever the count is 1 or 2, I bet 2 “units”
whenever the count is 3 to 7, I bet 3 “units”
whenever the count is >7, I bet 5 (or more) “units”
I may make some slight variations 'on the fly' based on "penetration"... i.e., how deep into the shoe we've gone.
I always double down, split, etc. when basic strategy tells me to, regardless of how many “units” I am betting.
As a VERY recreational BJ player with an aversion to making drastic –EV (negative expected value) bets, over the years I’ve toyed with a system for card counting… I’ve heard that most of the "good" shoe-based games will have a house edge between 0.25% and 0.50%, which is really not that much. Just learning perfect basic strategy is a great start – spotting +EV opportunities and varying (increasing) your bets to exploit them is the name of the card counting game.
My system is probably nothing like the pros use; just a simple system adapted from an “Ace-Five” system that has allowed me to think I’m reducing the house advantage somewhat.
I’d be curious whether others have devised their own systems, or what people think of my system….
Note: this only works in casino blackjack… don’t even TRY it online, where they conceivably re-shuffle after every hand.
I also only play tables where the dealer STANDS on soft 17.
The simple premise is that the more 5s in the deck, the worse for the player (dealer hits 16 and makes 21); and the more Aces are in the deck, the better for the player (more chance for blackjack which pays 3:2 in the player’s favor).
I start out with a count of -2 (signifying house advantage)… As the shoe is dealt I simply add 1 for every “5” card that I see, and subtract 1 for every “Ace” I see, and keep the running count in mind until the deck is shuffled again. (I may shuffle or stack my chips in such a way to help me keep track of the running count… trying to be as un-obvious as possible).
I then vary my bets based on the running count….
whenever the count is <1, I simply bet 1 “unit” (e.g., $10 at a $10 table)
whenever the count is 1 or 2, I bet 2 “units”
whenever the count is 3 to 7, I bet 3 “units”
whenever the count is >7, I bet 5 (or more) “units”
I may make some slight variations 'on the fly' based on "penetration"... i.e., how deep into the shoe we've gone.
I always double down, split, etc. when basic strategy tells me to, regardless of how many “units” I am betting.
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Ace-Five is simple enough for me to do, and still have fun playing.