2020 Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter NINE-LIVES
- Start date
That is a bad morning line. Messier is 8-1. They should be reversed. But if Taiba is 12-1, he’s worth a wager.
Epicenter drawing post three forces him to GO early. Assuming he breaks well, he has lightning quick early speed which may force some of the outside leavers to take back. But there are quite a few horses that have solid early foot, so perhaps there will be a pace duel which would benefit Zandon, Taiba and even Mo Donegal. ( I don’t think the rail helps him as he most likely will get shuffled due to his lack of tactical pace)
If I’m Joel Rosario, I’m taking Epicenter immediately to the front and taking no prisoners.
Not sure who will be the favorite, Epicenter or Zandon. Both will be approximately 3-1.
Epicenter drawing post three forces him to GO early. Assuming he breaks well, he has lightning quick early speed which may force some of the outside leavers to take back. But there are quite a few horses that have solid early foot, so perhaps there will be a pace duel which would benefit Zandon, Taiba and even Mo Donegal. ( I don’t think the rail helps him as he most likely will get shuffled due to his lack of tactical pace)
If I’m Joel Rosario, I’m taking Epicenter immediately to the front and taking no prisoners.
Not sure who will be the favorite, Epicenter or Zandon. Both will be approximately 3-1.
Some after thoughts regarding the second biggest upset in derby history.
The winner's story is nothing short of amazing. The trainer lost half of his horses in a barn fire a few years back. Furthermore, he had never won a graded stakes race though he had raced tens of thousands of horses at mostly smaller tracks. Eric Reed had a mare a few years back that almost beat the great Zenyatta who's only blemish was a nose defeat in the 2010 Breeder's cup. She won her first 19 races. Getting back to the horse, Rich Strike, he was claimed out of a $30,000 claiming race last year at Churchill Downs as a two year. He was claimed from his breeder/owner, Calumet Farms, who stands his daddy, Keen Ice, an absolute freight train of a horse who thrived in longer distance races. Keen Ice took down the immortal American Pharaoh at the 2015 Travers and had it not been for a mild injury late in his five year old campaign, would have tested the great Gun Runner in the 2017 Breeder's championship. Rich Strike charging along the inside brought back memories of Keen Ice.
As for the race itself, I wish more races were as competitive. The pace was blistering and set a record for the opening quarter and half. The Japanese horse, Crown Pride, battled viciously for the lead and is one to watch if the pace didn't take everything out of him. Had he been part of the late pace and not the early duel, we could have had a Japanese horse win the KY Derby.
Quite a few horses didn't fire, most notably Mo Donegal who after a really poor break found himself directly behind Rich Strike on the rail early. Taiba proved he did not have the foundation for the distance, though he was somewhat close to the early pace, so that may be his excuse. He's still a star in the making, maybe he need's Baffert's hay and oats which makes horses go faster than the competition. Messier was also a victim to the wicked pace.
The stretch battle between the two best horses in the race, Epicenter and Zandon, looked to be a classic finish until Rich Strike stormed home from seemingly nowhere. Kudos to Epicenter for outdueling Zandon who had a better trip and looked as if he was going to run right by Epicenter. If Epicenter is in the Preakness he will be difficult to beat.
The winner's story is nothing short of amazing. The trainer lost half of his horses in a barn fire a few years back. Furthermore, he had never won a graded stakes race though he had raced tens of thousands of horses at mostly smaller tracks. Eric Reed had a mare a few years back that almost beat the great Zenyatta who's only blemish was a nose defeat in the 2010 Breeder's cup. She won her first 19 races. Getting back to the horse, Rich Strike, he was claimed out of a $30,000 claiming race last year at Churchill Downs as a two year. He was claimed from his breeder/owner, Calumet Farms, who stands his daddy, Keen Ice, an absolute freight train of a horse who thrived in longer distance races. Keen Ice took down the immortal American Pharaoh at the 2015 Travers and had it not been for a mild injury late in his five year old campaign, would have tested the great Gun Runner in the 2017 Breeder's championship. Rich Strike charging along the inside brought back memories of Keen Ice.
As for the race itself, I wish more races were as competitive. The pace was blistering and set a record for the opening quarter and half. The Japanese horse, Crown Pride, battled viciously for the lead and is one to watch if the pace didn't take everything out of him. Had he been part of the late pace and not the early duel, we could have had a Japanese horse win the KY Derby.
Quite a few horses didn't fire, most notably Mo Donegal who after a really poor break found himself directly behind Rich Strike on the rail early. Taiba proved he did not have the foundation for the distance, though he was somewhat close to the early pace, so that may be his excuse. He's still a star in the making, maybe he need's Baffert's hay and oats which makes horses go faster than the competition. Messier was also a victim to the wicked pace.
The stretch battle between the two best horses in the race, Epicenter and Zandon, looked to be a classic finish until Rich Strike stormed home from seemingly nowhere. Kudos to Epicenter for outdueling Zandon who had a better trip and looked as if he was going to run right by Epicenter. If Epicenter is in the Preakness he will be difficult to beat.
The Blistering pace set by Summer is Tomorrow absolutely fried more than half the field. Set up well for a closer. I thought Epicenter had it with a furlong to go. Zandon ran a solid race and so did Mo Donegal finishing 5th. Rich Strike had a lot left in the tank, that was a great ride by Leon, to know what his horse had left. He has a pretty good pedigree. Taiba, Messier, White Aborio, and Cyberknife all were big disappointments.
Epicenter will be tough if he goes to the Preakness. A lot of fresh horses are lining up, including maybe Secret Oath.
Epicenter will be tough if he goes to the Preakness. A lot of fresh horses are lining up, including maybe Secret Oath.
I would love to see Jack Christopher off his monstrous return to the races this past weekend, but will more likely point to the Peter Pan. Brown also has Deciding Vote who I assume will be there. He was the pacesetter in the Wood Memorial when second to Mo Donegal.
The horse that I have a bit of interest in is a local horse aptly named Joe. He was the winner of the Federico Tesio which earned him a spot in the Preakness. Joe is as consistent as they come. I've seen most of his Maryland races and he's been right there in just about every start. Very game horse.
I can't wait to see the draw next week.
The horse that I have a bit of interest in is a local horse aptly named Joe. He was the winner of the Federico Tesio which earned him a spot in the Preakness. Joe is as consistent as they come. I've seen most of his Maryland races and he's been right there in just about every start. Very game horse.
I can't wait to see the draw next week.
I was saying they just send him during the race, they have to send him to Pimlico, right? Gotta take the shot after that win in the Derby.
His pedigree isn't bad at all, I think he has a legit shot too win the Preakness. It should be a really good race either way with all the fresh horses and the Filly.
The draw is next Tuesday?
His pedigree isn't bad at all, I think he has a legit shot too win the Preakness. It should be a really good race either way with all the fresh horses and the Filly.
The draw is next Tuesday?
If he's doing well, the trainer will send him to Pimlico. You can't mean send him to the front? He doesn't have any early speed if you look at his race record. We may know today if he decided to ship.
Rich Strike has never raced on short rest (two weeks) and this was a concern to the trainer. The Preakness is shorter in distance and the turns are much tighter. If he races, I hope that he does well but I'm very skeptical and will not use him on any of my tickets.
I'm hoping that Joe is entered, a Mike Trombetta trained colt. If he gets in, watch his last race in the Tesio. It's on YT. The colt is as game as they come.
The draw is Tuesday at 4:00 pm.
Rich Strike has never raced on short rest (two weeks) and this was a concern to the trainer. The Preakness is shorter in distance and the turns are much tighter. If he races, I hope that he does well but I'm very skeptical and will not use him on any of my tickets.
I'm hoping that Joe is entered, a Mike Trombetta trained colt. If he gets in, watch his last race in the Tesio. It's on YT. The colt is as game as they come.
The draw is Tuesday at 4:00 pm.
Ohh I looked into Joe already, he is on my radar thanks to you mentioning him.
I am torn between using Rich Strike or not, He may go off at 5/6-1, its like if I don't take him and he wins it was staring right at me.
Regarding the early speed and Strike not having any, I still would put him close to the lead and see if you can get that last minute excelleration out of him like in the derby. I think too many horses will be looking to close. I remember Magic Weisner from like 2000, maybe 2001 closing from WAY off the pace to almost beat War Emblem. Almost had him at the wire, maybe a length.
As a horse racing fan you hope for Strike to win, bring it to Belmont for at least a chance. I love a good underdog.
I am torn between using Rich Strike or not, He may go off at 5/6-1, its like if I don't take him and he wins it was staring right at me.
Regarding the early speed and Strike not having any, I still would put him close to the lead and see if you can get that last minute excelleration out of him like in the derby. I think too many horses will be looking to close. I remember Magic Weisner from like 2000, maybe 2001 closing from WAY off the pace to almost beat War Emblem. Almost had him at the wire, maybe a length.
As a horse racing fan you hope for Strike to win, bring it to Belmont for at least a chance. I love a good underdog.
My guess is that he will go off 10-1 or better if Epicenter, Zandon and Secret Oath are in the field. No chance he is lower in them.
Maybe Magic Strike is like his old man, Keen Ice, who greatly improved after his Derby and improved his early pace figures. If Leon can secure position on the rail and get away mid back, that would be great and give him a better chance. But if 14 go to post, he will need to draw inside.
By chance, did you ever see the HBO show Luck? You would love it.
Maybe Magic Strike is like his old man, Keen Ice, who greatly improved after his Derby and improved his early pace figures. If Leon can secure position on the rail and get away mid back, that would be great and give him a better chance. But if 14 go to post, he will need to draw inside.
By chance, did you ever see the HBO show Luck? You would love it.