2020 Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter NINE-LIVES
- Start date
I was thinking the same thing about these horses having to manage all the down time.
Are they running the other upcoming stakes races minus the crowds?
You think Saratoga is going to be cancelled? I guess it will be since a lot of important races are run towards the end of the meet for the 3 year olds.
Are they running the other upcoming stakes races minus the crowds?
You think Saratoga is going to be cancelled? I guess it will be since a lot of important races are run towards the end of the meet for the 3 year olds.
My guess is that racing will resume without attendance by June 1st in New York. This assumes new covid cases/deaths begin to decline dramatically during the month of May. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic of fans returning to the tracks for a very long time unless, miraculously, a vaccine is available.
1 - Epicenter
The most impressive of the Derby prep winners was Epicenter's LA Derby which was held at 1 3/16 of a mile. He showed versality in this win by securing an early position behind the pacesetter and fanning three deep late on the turn and flashing a strong stretch run in dominating this field. With his high level gate speed and the ability to track horses, he deserves to be the favorite and most likely winner.
2 - Zandon
Zandon had been campaigned brilliantly by Chad Brown more known for his turf runners, but he will someday win a derby. Zandon was an impressive winner in the recent Lexington Stakes where he was caught in traffic the majority of the race due to his lack of early pace, but though the final turn expertly found room between horses without ground loss or having to swing wide. Flavien Prat, one of the premiere jockeys in the world will be aboard but will need a little pace up front and post position will be critical to his chances.
3 - Smile Happy
So if you were a fan of Zandon's win, you have to respect Smile Happy who finished second in the Lexington after leaving hard from his outside post and being three wide on the turn, was up close to the pace through out, made the lead upper stretch to gain the lead only to get run down by Zandon who clearly had the better trip. If the trips were reversed, the outcome would have been a whole lot closer.
Other legitimate contenders include
White Abarrio
Tiz The Bomb
Cyberknife
Taiba
Simplification
Mo Donegal
Crown Pride (Japanese horse) I have no clue if he is any good but I'm leaning towards that he is not.
There are at least 10 horses that have no chance this year - I will update my post when post positions are drawn.
The most impressive of the Derby prep winners was Epicenter's LA Derby which was held at 1 3/16 of a mile. He showed versality in this win by securing an early position behind the pacesetter and fanning three deep late on the turn and flashing a strong stretch run in dominating this field. With his high level gate speed and the ability to track horses, he deserves to be the favorite and most likely winner.
2 - Zandon
Zandon had been campaigned brilliantly by Chad Brown more known for his turf runners, but he will someday win a derby. Zandon was an impressive winner in the recent Lexington Stakes where he was caught in traffic the majority of the race due to his lack of early pace, but though the final turn expertly found room between horses without ground loss or having to swing wide. Flavien Prat, one of the premiere jockeys in the world will be aboard but will need a little pace up front and post position will be critical to his chances.
3 - Smile Happy
So if you were a fan of Zandon's win, you have to respect Smile Happy who finished second in the Lexington after leaving hard from his outside post and being three wide on the turn, was up close to the pace through out, made the lead upper stretch to gain the lead only to get run down by Zandon who clearly had the better trip. If the trips were reversed, the outcome would have been a whole lot closer.
Other legitimate contenders include
White Abarrio
Tiz The Bomb
Cyberknife
Taiba
Simplification
Mo Donegal
Crown Pride (Japanese horse) I have no clue if he is any good but I'm leaning towards that he is not.
There are at least 10 horses that have no chance this year - I will update my post when post positions are drawn.
Almost all of my futures are now out of the race, SMH. Forbidden Kingdom, Morello, and Classic Causeway (I think is out).
I have Smile Happy and Epicenter left in my futures. I don't think Smile Happy can get the distance. I like Tiz The Bomb, but I think he likes the Turf/Synthetic better than the dirt.
Simplification will be in all of my exotics, especially if he goes off more than 20-1, which I think is possible.
Mo Donegal ran a good Wood but most Wood winners don't win the Derby.
Charge It, Barber Road ran well in their last prep races, I could see Barber Road getting in there.
I'm going to put Tawny Port in my exotics, who doesn't like a nice port??!!
I have Smile Happy and Epicenter left in my futures. I don't think Smile Happy can get the distance. I like Tiz The Bomb, but I think he likes the Turf/Synthetic better than the dirt.
Simplification will be in all of my exotics, especially if he goes off more than 20-1, which I think is possible.
Mo Donegal ran a good Wood but most Wood winners don't win the Derby.
Charge It, Barber Road ran well in their last prep races, I could see Barber Road getting in there.
I'm going to put Tawny Port in my exotics, who doesn't like a nice port??!!
I got the Bluegrass and Lexington mixed up in my earlier post. Zandon and Smile Happy come out of the Bluegrass.
I have Zandon and Epicenter in my futures. I had Classic Causeway but think that the trainer Brian Lynch made a HUGE mistake running in the Florida Derby off short rest. Totally idiotic, the horse had qualified, he could of used the Lexington or the Blue Grass for his prep.
I've been betting Barber Road. His trainer is really good, John Ortiz. I'd be shocked if he hit the board.
Mo Donegal would need a very hot pace and a ground saving trip to have a chance.
You're probably right about Smile Happy, but if Churchill plays kindly to inside speed and he gets the right trip, he clearly has the ability to be there.
It does seem to be Epicenter's year and he has an all time great in Steve Asmussen as trainer. When he has an exceptional horse, they usually are dominant.
I have Zandon and Epicenter in my futures. I had Classic Causeway but think that the trainer Brian Lynch made a HUGE mistake running in the Florida Derby off short rest. Totally idiotic, the horse had qualified, he could of used the Lexington or the Blue Grass for his prep.
I've been betting Barber Road. His trainer is really good, John Ortiz. I'd be shocked if he hit the board.
Mo Donegal would need a very hot pace and a ground saving trip to have a chance.
You're probably right about Smile Happy, but if Churchill plays kindly to inside speed and he gets the right trip, he clearly has the ability to be there.
It does seem to be Epicenter's year and he has an all time great in Steve Asmussen as trainer. When he has an exceptional horse, they usually are dominant.
What do you do with Taiba? Baffert transferred both him and Messier to Tim Yakteen who used to work with him. As for Taiba, there are a lot of folks in his camp after winning the SA Derby in only his second lifetime start. I’m not buying in, he rolled by Messier easily after Forbidden Kingdom spit the bit. But he scares me a bit for not knowing how good he may be. ( and that Baffert is really his trainer)
I just watched the SA Derby and Taiba's maiden win. Boy, he looked like he had plenty in reserve when he went by Messier.
Here's what impressed me about his SA Derby:
He broke alertly and if Smith wanted the lead it was his for the taking but took hold and tracked off the two colts ahead of him.
On the final turn, you could see that Smith was sitting on GO and when engaged in a duel with Messier, beat him quite easily. Messier really wasn't tiring, Taiba was accelerating by him. If you have a chance go back and watch the SA Derby again and let me know if your opinion changes.
The downside is that outside of Messier, who I still respect, the rest of the field was terrible. The beyer was 102 the highest of any prep race.
He sold for 1.7 million at a two year old in training sale, as a yearly he fetched about $150,000. (Nice score for the breeder)
My instincts suggest that Taiba may be something special.
Here's what impressed me about his SA Derby:
He broke alertly and if Smith wanted the lead it was his for the taking but took hold and tracked off the two colts ahead of him.
On the final turn, you could see that Smith was sitting on GO and when engaged in a duel with Messier, beat him quite easily. Messier really wasn't tiring, Taiba was accelerating by him. If you have a chance go back and watch the SA Derby again and let me know if your opinion changes.
The downside is that outside of Messier, who I still respect, the rest of the field was terrible. The beyer was 102 the highest of any prep race.
He sold for 1.7 million at a two year old in training sale, as a yearly he fetched about $150,000. (Nice score for the breeder)
My instincts suggest that Taiba may be something special.
Just watched the replay, it was impressive in how he was on the outside most of the race and had a lot left in the tank through the finish line. That kind of grinding style works well in the Derby usually.
But like you said, outside of Messier there was no competition in that race, and it was a 6 horse field. Now he's got 13 more horses who have all been in bigger races or won graded stakes.
Taking nothing away from Taiba at all, plus his jock is one of the best. I will put him in some exotics for sure after watching the replay. But I don't see him as a lock, I mean who is in a 20 horse field. But he could definitely be there. At 4-1 its a tough wager, 8-1 or more and I would put a few hundred on him.
But like you said, outside of Messier there was no competition in that race, and it was a 6 horse field. Now he's got 13 more horses who have all been in bigger races or won graded stakes.
Taking nothing away from Taiba at all, plus his jock is one of the best. I will put him in some exotics for sure after watching the replay. But I don't see him as a lock, I mean who is in a 20 horse field. But he could definitely be there. At 4-1 its a tough wager, 8-1 or more and I would put a few hundred on him.
By no means a lock, but every year I don't use the Cali horses they usually beat me.
My point is that I have upgraded my opinion of him based upon a another look. Additionally, he showed that he could be tactical, I expect a lot of pace in this year's run for the roses.
Finally, it would be ironic if Taiba won the Derby given that it is the same owner who was disqualified from last year's derby, the ill-fated Medina Spirit who proved how good he was when he was second to Knicks Go in the Breeder's Cup.
My point is that I have upgraded my opinion of him based upon a another look. Additionally, he showed that he could be tactical, I expect a lot of pace in this year's run for the roses.
Finally, it would be ironic if Taiba won the Derby given that it is the same owner who was disqualified from last year's derby, the ill-fated Medina Spirit who proved how good he was when he was second to Knicks Go in the Breeder's Cup.